Rapid climate change is reshaping the ecological dynamics of coral reefs, posing significant challenges in understanding the long-term effects of environmental disturbances on reef development. In the current study, we conducted a chronological analysis and regional review of Holocene massive Porites corals in the northern South China Sea, revealing a unique episodic growth pattern, including a 2500-year growth hiatus. The findings suggest that this collapse was driven by the coupling of intensified East Asian winter monsoon and broader-scale El Niño–Southern Oscillation variability. Regional environmental drivers significantly influenced spatiotemporal variations in coral growth stagnation across the Pan-Pacific region. While future sea level rise and warming may benefit nearshore corals, the projected intensification of El Niño–Southern Oscillation variability could undermine the potential of the northern South China Sea as a coral refuge. Effective coral management and environmental mitigation measures are crucial to preventing further collapse of regional coral reefs.

中文翻译：

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东亚季风和厄尔尼诺-南方涛动耦合引发南海北部 2500 年一遇的珊瑚关闭


快速的气候变化正在重塑珊瑚礁的生态动态，为理解环境干扰对珊瑚礁发育的长期影响构成了重大挑战。在目前的研究中，我们对南海北部的全新世块状 Porites 珊瑚进行了年代学分析和区域回顾，揭示了独特的偶发性生长模式，包括 2500 年的生长中断。研究结果表明，这种崩溃是由东亚冬季季风增强和更广泛尺度的厄尔尼诺-南方涛动变率耦合驱动的。区域环境驱动因素显著影响了泛太平洋地区珊瑚生长停滞的时空变化。虽然未来的海平面上升和变暖可能有利于近岸珊瑚，但预计厄尔尼诺-南方涛动变化的加剧可能会削弱南海北部作为珊瑚保护区的潜力。有效的珊瑚管理和环境缓解措施对于防止区域珊瑚礁进一步崩溃至关重要。