Species distribution models (SDMs) are critical to the adaptive management of fisheries under climate change. While many approaches projecting marine species range shifts have incorporated the effects of temperature on movement, there is a need to incorporate a wider suite of ecologically relevant predictors as temperature‐based SDMs can considerably under‐ or over‐estimate the rate of species responses to climate shocks. As a subarctic ecosystem at the sea ice margin, the Eastern Bering Sea (EBS) is warming faster than much of the global ocean, resulting in the rapid redistribution of key fishery and subsistence resources. To support long‐term planning and adaptation, we combine 40 years of scientific surveys with a high‐resolution oceanographic model to examine the effects of bottom temperature, oxygen, pH and a regional climate index (the extent of the EBS ‘cold pool’) on range projections through the end of the century. We use multimodel inference to partition uncertainty among earth systems models, climate scenarios and distribution model parameterizations for several ecologically and economically important EBS groundfish and crabs. Covariate choice is the primary source of uncertainty for most species, with models that account for spatial responses to the cold pool performing better and suggesting more extensive northward movements than alternative models. Models suggest declines in the probability of occurrence at low pH and oxygen concentrations for most species. We project shifts that are directionally consistent with, yet larger than those previously estimated for most species, suggesting that accounting for large‐scale climate variability in species distribution models may substantially alter range projections.

中文翻译：

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气候协变量选择与预测物种范围变化的不确定性——以白令海东部为例


物种分布模型 （SDM） 对于气候变化下渔业的适应性管理至关重要。虽然许多预测海洋物种范围变化的方法都纳入了温度对运动的影响，但需要纳入更广泛的生态相关预测因子，因为基于温度的 SDM 可能会大大低估或高估物种对气候冲击的反应速度。作为海冰边缘的亚北极生态系统，东白令海 （EBS） 的变暖速度比全球大部分海洋都要快，导致关键渔业和生计资源迅速重新分配。为了支持长期规划和适应，我们将 40 年的科学调查与高分辨率海洋学模型相结合，以检查底部温度、氧气、pH 值和区域气候指数（EBS“冷池”的范围）对本世纪末范围预测的影响。我们使用多模式推理来划分地球系统模式、气候情景和几种具有重要生态和经济意义的 EBS 底层鱼类和螃蟹的分布模型参数化之间的不确定性。协变量选择是大多数物种不确定性的主要来源，考虑对冷池的空间响应的模型表现更好，并且表明比其他模型更广泛的北移。模型表明，大多数物种在低 pH 值和低氧浓度下发生的可能性有所下降。我们预测的偏移在方向上与大多数物种的估计一致，但比以前估计的更大，这表明在物种分布模型中考虑大尺度气候变率可能会大大改变范围预测。