This study explores the relationship between macroprudential policies, inflation, and bank risk in emerging economies. Several significant findings emerge based on panel data from approximately 1400 commercial banks across 32 emerging economies over the period 2000–2018. Firstly, a positive correlation is observed between inflation rates and bank risk, suggesting that inflation increases financial instability. Contrary to their intended purpose, stringent macroprudential policies actually intensify bank risk during periods of high inflation rather than stabilizing economies. Secondly, the analysis indicates that macroprudential tools designed to moderate credit cycles significantly enhance the risk banks face from inflation. Varied impacts are observed among different macroprudential instruments: capital-related, reserve requirement, and foreign exchange-related tools counterproductively heighten bank risk during periods of high inflation. Conversely, asset-based and liquidity-focused tools effectively reduce bank risk under similar inflationary conditions.

中文翻译：

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通货膨胀和宏观审慎政策对银行风险的影响——来自新兴经济体的证据


本研究探讨了新兴经济体的宏观审慎政策、通货膨胀和银行风险之间的关系。根据 2000 年至 2018 年期间 32 个新兴经济体约 1400 家商业银行的面板数据，得出了几项重要发现。首先，观察到通货膨胀率与银行风险呈正相关，表明通货膨胀增加了金融不稳定。与其预期目的相反，严格的宏观审慎政策实际上在高通胀时期加剧了银行风险，而不是稳定经济。其次，分析表明，旨在调节信贷周期的宏观审慎工具显著增加了银行面临的通胀风险。在不同的宏观审慎工具中观察到不同的影响：在高通胀时期，资本相关工具、准备金率和外汇相关工具会适得其反地增加银行风险。相反，在类似的通胀条件下，基于资产和以流动性为重点的工具可有效降低银行风险。