This paper provides macro-level estimates of the prevalence of poverty in preindustrial Germany, from the Black Death to the onset of industrialization in the nineteenth century. Based on a new body of evidence we show that poverty declined after two large-scale catastrophes: the Black Death in the fourteenth century and the Thirty Years’ War in the seventeenth. Poverty increased substantially in the sixteenth century, and stagnated in the eighteenth and early nineteenth centuries. This pattern is broadly in line with a Malthusian model of the preindustrial economy, but also with several other explanations of poverty. Circa 1600, poverty and inequality extraction were at a historical peak – right when social conflict erupted in Germany.

中文翻译：

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德国从黑死病到工业化开始的贫困


本文对前工业化德国从黑死病到 19 世纪工业化开始的贫困普遍率进行了宏观估计。根据大量新证据，我们表明，在两次大规模灾难之后，贫困率有所下降：14 世纪的黑死病和 17 世纪的三十年战争。贫困在 16 世纪大幅增加，并在 18 世纪和 19 世纪初停滞不前。这种模式与前工业化经济的马尔萨斯模型大体一致，但也与其他几种对贫困的解释一致。大约 1600 年，贫困和不平等的榨取正处于历史高峰——当时德国爆发了社会冲突。