This study delves into the complexities of energy commodity futures and clean energy indexes, analyzing their responses to geopolitical risk. The detrended fluctuation analysis was applied, and the efficiency index was estimated to assess energy market behavior better. This approach allows the evaluation of long-range dependence and market efficiency. The findings show evolving patterns influenced by significant geopolitical events such as the COVID-19 pandemic and geopolitical conflicts. Transfer entropy analysis also uncovers directional dependence between energy markets and geopolitical risk, highlighting energy commodities' influential (or anticipated) role on geopolitical indexes. The dynamic analysis emphasizes time-varying relationships, with fluctuations notably impacted by global events like the European sovereign debt crisis and escalating geopolitical tensions. Additionally, clean energy indexes exhibit sensitivity to geopolitical risk, offering valuable insights into market behavior and informing risk management strategies. The study highlights the complex and dynamic relationships between energy markets and geopolitical factors and provides useful information for investors and policymakers on energy markets.

中文翻译：

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探索地缘政治风险与能源市场之间的联系


本研究深入探讨了能源商品期货和清洁能源指数的复杂性，分析了它们对地缘政治风险的反应。应用去趋势波动分析，并估计效率指数以更好地评估能源市场行为。这种方法允许评估长期依赖性和市场效率。研究结果显示了受 COVID-19 大流行和地缘政治冲突等重大地缘政治事件影响的演变模式。转移熵分析还揭示了能源市场与地缘政治风险之间的方向依赖性，突出了能源商品对地缘政治指数的影响（或预期）作用。动态分析强调时变关系，波动主要受到欧洲主权债务危机和地缘政治紧张局势升级等全球事件的影响。此外，清洁能源指数对地缘政治风险表现出敏感性，为市场行为提供了有价值的见解，并为风险管理策略提供了信息。该研究强调了能源市场与地缘政治因素之间复杂而动态的关系，并为能源市场的投资者和政策制定者提供了有用的信息。