We combine econometric estimation with quantitative modeling to generate projections on the trade, GDP, and emissions effects of a potential trade liberalization agreement involving energy-related environmental goods (EREGs) and environmentally preferable products (EPPs). Trade liberalization can contribute to reduced emissions in two ways in our projections: (i) a reduction of import prices of goods promoting energy efficiency; and (ii) a reduction in the costs of intermediate and capital goods used in the production of electricity from renewable-energy sources. Four scenarios are evaluated, combining reductions in tariffs and non-tariff measures (NTMs) for EREGs and EPPs. Using simulations with the WTO Global Trade Model we find (i) an increase in exports of EREGs and EPPs both at the global level and in most regions; (ii) a modest increase in GDP in all regions because of falling tariffs, NTMs, and increased energy efficiency; and (iii) a modest reduction in global emissions of about 0.6%. The dominant channel is energy efficiency, whereas the costs of EREGs as intermediates in renewable energy production play a minor role, with or without end-use control.

中文翻译：

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环境商品贸易自由化对贸易和排放的潜在影响


我们将计量经济学估计与定量建模相结合，以生成对涉及能源相关环境产品 （EREG） 和环境首选产品 （EPP） 的潜在贸易自由化协议的贸易、GDP 和排放影响的预测。在我们的预测中，贸易自由化可以通过两种方式有助于减少排放：（i） 降低商品的进口价格，提高能源效率;以及 （ii） 降低用于可再生能源发电的中间产品和资本产品的成本。评估了四种情景，结合了 EREG 和 EPP 的关税和非关税措施 （NTM）。使用WTO全球贸易模型的模拟，我们发现（i）全球层面和大多数地区的EREGs和EPPs出口都有所增加;（ii） 由于关税、非关税限制和能源效率的提高，所有地区的 GDP 均略有增长;（iii） 全球排放量适度减少约 0.6%。主要渠道是能源效率，而 EREG 作为可再生能源生产中的中间体的成本起着次要作用，无论有没有最终用途控制。