This study investigates the drivers of renewable energy capacity in 25 OECD countries from 1989 to 2019, with a particular focus on the complex role of oil prices in the energy transition. Given their strong correlation with major fossil fuels like coal and gas, understanding the impact of oil price shocks is crucial for shaping effective transition strategies. We examine this impact from a climate mitigation perspective, recognising it as a key dimension of a just transition. Unlike previous research, our approach suggests that policymakers, stakeholders, and investors should focus on two key areas to ensure a sustainable transition: promoting renewable energy capacity and reducing non-renewable energy capacity. We propose a dual-focus approach that acknowledges the importance of both enhancing renewable energy adoption and diminishing reliance on non-renewable sources. By identifying and leveraging both sets of drivers, policymakers and stakeholders can create more balanced and comprehensive strategies for energy transition. We categorise the drivers into four levels: (1) the interplay between oil prices, climate mitigation finance, and green innovation; (2) macroeconomic factors; (3) climate degradation; and (4) environmental management policies. Our results confirm our hypothesis by highlighting the role of certain drivers in reducing non-renewable energy capacity and certain others in promoting renewable energy capacity. Furthermore, our findings underscore the direct and indirect channels through which oil price dynamics influence the promotion of renewable energy capacity and reduction of non-renewable capacity, notably through the climate mitigation finance channel. This multifaceted approach aims to provide a deeper understanding of the various factors influencing energy transition and offer actionable insights for effective policy formulation.

中文翻译：

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了解能源产能转型的驱动因素：来自双重方法的新证据


本研究调查了 1989 年至 2019 年期间 25 个经合组织国家可再生能源产能的驱动因素，特别关注油价在能源转型中的复杂作用。鉴于它们与煤炭和天然气等主要化石燃料具有很强的相关性，了解油价冲击的影响对于制定有效的转型战略至关重要。我们从减缓气候变化的角度来研究这种影响，将其视为公正转型的关键维度。与以前的研究不同，我们的方法建议政策制定者、利益相关者和投资者应关注两个关键领域以确保可持续转型：促进可再生能源产能和减少不可再生能源产能。我们提出了一种双重点方法，承认提高可再生能源采用和减少对不可再生能源依赖的重要性。通过识别和利用这两组驱动因素，政策制定者和利益相关者可以制定更加平衡和全面的能源转型战略。我们将驱动因素分为四个层次：（1） 油价、气候减缓融资和绿色创新之间的相互作用;（2） 宏观经济因素;（3） 气候退化;（4） 环境管理政策。我们的结果通过强调某些驱动因素在减少不可再生能源容量方面的作用，以及某些其他驱动因素在促进可再生能源容量方面的作用来证实我们的假设。此外，我们的研究结果强调了油价动态影响可再生能源产能提升和减少不可再生能源产能的直接和间接渠道，特别是通过气候减缓融资渠道。 这种多方面的方法旨在更深入地了解影响能源转型的各种因素，并为有效的政策制定提供可操作的见解。