The ChemicalDrift model is applied to predict concentrations of metals and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons emitted from shipping in European seas in 2050, compared to 2018. Sources include antifouling paints (AFPs), discharge water from scrubbers and atmospheric deposition. The fate of pollutants in the marine environment is presented, highlighting the effect of degradation and volatilization, with seasonal and regional differences. A simplified impact assessment is outlined, where predicted environmental concentrations of individual chemicals and whole effluent concentrations of scrubber discharge water are compared to predicted no-effect concentrations (PNECs) or lowest observed effect concentration (LOEC). The 2018 assessment shows scrubber effluent concentrations exceeding LOEC in Baltic and North Sea coastal regions. By 2050, assuming high use of scrubbers, elevated concentrations may extend to all European seas. For AFPs, assuming continued use of primarily copper-based paints, the highest copper concentrations are projected in 2050 for North Sea ports and coasts, potentially exceeding PNECs.

中文翻译：

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2018-2050 年欧洲海域航运有机污染物和金属排放和运输的预计变化


与 2018 年相比，ChemicalDrift 模型用于预测 2050 年欧洲海域航运排放的金属和多环芳烃的浓度。来源包括防污漆 （AFP）、洗涤器排放水和大气沉积。介绍了海洋环境中污染物的归宿，突出了降解和挥发的影响，并存在季节性和区域差异。概述了简化的影响评估，其中将单个化学品的预测环境浓度和洗涤器排放水的整个污水浓度与预测的无影响浓度 （PNEC） 或最低观测效应浓度 （LOEC） 进行比较。2018 年的评估显示，波罗的海和北海沿海地区的洗涤器废水浓度超过 LOEC。到 2050 年，假设洗涤器的大量使用，高浓度可能会扩展到所有欧洲海域。对于 AFP，假设继续使用主要基于铜的涂料，预计 2050 年北海港口和沿海地区的铜浓度最高，可能超过 PNEC。