Brown spot needle blight disease, caused by the fungus Lecanosticta acicola, affects pine trees across the northern hemisphere. In recent years, its incidence has expanded to new areas and host species. This is in association with climate change. Interest in understanding the basis of its epidemiology and proposing appropriate management measures has also increased. However, there is a lack of studies that characterise the relationship between spore abundance trends and climatic factors, which are essential to understand the spread of the disease. We collected spore abundance data for three years from 16 traps located in pine plantations over the Basque Country (north of Spain), the first European region where L. acicola was detected. A rapid change in pathogen behaviour led to serious financial losses in the forestry sector. We then modelled the relationship between spore abundance and weather variables in terms of generalised additive models. The resulting model was used to estimate the risk of disease spread over the whole area of Basque Country. We also generated a risk projection for the north of the Iberian Peninsula, an area influenced by the Atlantic climate, where the disease is currently causing severe damage. Cumulative rainfall acted as a reliable predictor of the spore abundance of the pathogen; thus, data from weather stations can be directly incorporated into early warning protocols to inform effective preventive actions.

中文翻译：

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大西洋气候区 Lecanosticta acicola 孢子丰度风险预测


由真菌 Lecanosticta acicola 引起的褐斑针枯病影响整个北半球的松树。近年来，其发病率已扩展到新的地区和寄主物种。这与气候变化有关。了解其流行病学基础并提出适当管理措施的兴趣也有所增加。然而，缺乏描述孢子丰度趋势与气候因素之间关系的研究，而这些因素对于了解疾病的传播至关重要。我们从位于巴斯克地区（西班牙北部）松树种植园的 16 个陷阱中收集了三年的孢子丰度数据，这是第一个检测到 L. acicola 的欧洲地区。病原体行为的快速变化导致林业部门遭受了严重的经济损失。然后，我们根据广义加性模型对孢子丰度与天气变量之间的关系进行建模。所得模型用于估计疾病在巴斯克地区整个地区的传播风险。我们还为伊比利亚半岛北部生成了风险预测，该地区受大西洋气候影响，该疾病目前正在该地区造成严重破坏。累积降雨量是病原体孢子丰度的可靠预测指标;因此，来自气象站的数据可以直接纳入早期预警协议，为有效的预防措施提供信息。