From a new data set, we infer time series of term structures of yields on U.S. federal bonds during the gold standard era from 1791–1933 and use our estimates to reassess historical narratives about how the United States expanded its fiscal capacity. We show that U.S. debt carried a default risk premium until the end of the nineteenth century, when it started being priced as an alternative safe asset to U.K. debt. During the Civil War, investors expected the United States to return to a gold standard so the federal government was able to borrow without facing denomination risk. After the introduction of the National Banking System, the slope of the yield curve switched from down to up and the premium on U.S. debt with maturity less than one year disappeared.

中文翻译：

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金本位制下的美国联邦债务融资成本：1791-1933 年


根据新的数据集，我们推断了 1791 年至 1933 年金本位时代美国联邦债券收益率期限结构的时间序列，并使用我们的估计值重新评估了关于美国如何扩大其财政能力的历史叙述。我们表明，美国债务在19世纪末之前一直存在违约风险溢价，当时它开始被定价为英国债务的替代性安全资产。在南北战争期间，投资者预计美国将恢复金本位制，以便联邦政府能够在不面临面额风险的情况下借款。国家银行系统引入后，收益率曲线的斜率由下转为上，期限不到一年的美国国债溢价消失。