BACKGROUND The Global Calculator is an open-source model of the world's energy, land, and food systems. It is a pioneering online calculator to project the impact of interventions to mitigate climate change on global temperature. A few studies have been conducted to evaluate the health co-benefits of climate change mitigation, though they are still fragmentary. OBJECTIVES Our objectives are to identify which sectors could yield the greatest results in terms of climate change mitigation and suggest whether existing evidence could be used to weight mitigation actions based on their ancillary impacts on human health or health co-benefits. METHODS Using the International Energy Agency (IEA) 4DS scenario as a referent (i.e., the "4-degree Celsius increase scenario"), we simulated changes in different policy "levers" (encompassing 43 potential technological and behavioral interventions, grouped by 14 sectors) and assessed the relative importance of each lever in terms of changes in annual greenhouse gas emissions in 2050 and cumulative emissions by 2100. In addition, we examined existing estimates for the health co-benefits associated with different interventions, using evidence from the Lancet Pathfinder and four other tools. DISCUSSION Our simulations suggest that-after accounting for demographic change-transition from fossil fuels to renewables and changes in agriculture, forestry, land use, and food production are key sectors for climate change mitigation. The role of interventions in other sectors, like carbon capture and storage (CCS) or nuclear power, is more modest. Our work also identifies mitigation actions that are likely to have large health co-benefits, including shifts to renewable energy and changes in land use as well as dietary and travel behaviors. In conclusion, some of the sectors/interventions which have been at the center of policy debate (e.g., CCS or nuclear power) are likely to be far less important than changes in areas such as dietary habits or forestry practices by 2050. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP14906.

中文翻译：

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整合多种气候变化缓解行动和健康协同效益：使用全球计算器的框架。


背景 Global Calculator 是世界能源、土地和食品系统的开源模型。它是一个开创性的在线计算器，用于预测缓解气候变化的干预措施对全球温度的影响。已经进行了一些研究来评估减缓气候变化的健康协同效益，尽管它们仍然是零散的。目标我们的目标是确定哪些部门可以在减缓气候变化方面产生最大的成果，并建议是否可以使用现有证据来根据其对人类健康的辅助影响或健康的共同利益来权衡缓解行动。方法 使用国际能源署 （IEA） 4DS 情景作为参考（即“4 摄氏度上升情景”），我们模拟了不同政策“杠杆”的变化（包括 43 种潜在的技术和行为干预措施，按 14 个行业分组），并根据 2050 年年温室气体排放量的变化和 2100 年的累积排放量评估了每个杠杆的相对重要性。此外，我们使用来自 Lancet Pathfinder 和其他四种工具的证据，检查了与不同干预措施相关的健康协同益处的现有估计值。讨论 我们的模拟表明，在考虑了人口变化之后，从化石燃料到可再生能源的过渡以及农业、林业、土地利用和食品生产的变化是缓解气候变化的关键部门。其他部门的干预措施，如碳捕集与封存 （CCS） 或核电，的作用要小得多。我们的工作还确定了可能产生巨大健康协同效益的缓解措施，包括转向可再生能源和改变土地利用以及饮食和旅行行为。 总之，到 2050 年，一些一直是政策辩论中心的部门/干预措施（例如 CCS 或核电）可能远不如饮食习惯或林业实践等领域的变化重要。https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP14906。