What are the causal pathways through which natural resources are linked to civil conflict? Ross evaluates ten causal pathways across thirteen conflicts to offer the most comprehensive answer to date. However, nearly 20 years later, all thirteen conflicts have ended, and more sources are available, motivating the question: Would the findings hold if replicated today? We employ a new explicit standards approach to replicate Ross’ thirteen cases twice: First, using his original seventy-eight sources and second, employing a more up-to-date set of conflict end-dates and over 500 sources. Most findings (75 percent) hold, while 25 percent do not. We find stronger evidence for Ross’ claim that looting resources is linked to longer conflicts and that resources motivate government repression. However, we also overturn some of his key claims, by demonstrating that resources do, in fact, affect conflict onset by funding rebel start-up costs and generating grievances amongst the population.

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复制资源诅咒：Ross 2004 的定性复制


自然资源与国内冲突之间的因果关系是什么？Ross 评估了 13 种冲突中的 10 种因果途径，以提供迄今为止最全面的答案。然而，近 20 年后，所有 13 场冲突都已结束，并且有更多的来源可用，这引发了一个问题：如果今天复制这些发现，这些发现是否成立？我们采用一种新的显式标准方法来复制 Ross 的 13 个案例两次：第一次，使用他最初的 78 个来源，第二次，使用一组更新的冲突结束日期和 500 多个来源。大多数调查结果 （75%） 成立，而 25% 则不成立。我们找到了更有力的证据来支持罗斯的说法，即掠夺资源与更持久的冲突有关，并且资源会激发政府的镇压。然而，我们也推翻了他的一些关键主张，证明资源实际上确实通过资助叛军的启动成本和在民众中产生不满来影响冲突的爆发。