Generalized trust has attracted attention as a non-material disposition that affects risk perception in political and economic international cooperation. However, its effect on public support for free trade or trade agreements has been debated. This debate centers on whether the economic impacts of trade are evident or uncertain to ordinary citizens because generalized trust operates only when trade impacts are uncertain and risk perception is crucial. However, the visibility of trade impacts varies significantly depending on the economic environment. This study explores the role of industrial tertiarization, the shift from agriculture and manufacturing to services, in altering the visibility of trade impacts. It hypothesizes that generalized trust shapes trade preferences primarily in highly tertiarized local economies. Using data from the 2016 American National Election Studies and World Values Survey Wave 7, this hypothesis was tested and confirmed. This study contributes to the literature by demonstrating that the influence of generalized trust on trade preferences varies with the level of local tertiarization. It also proposes new causal mechanisms for understanding anti-globalism in developed countries and suggests that the influence of economic impacts on trade preferences may similarly depend on local tertiarization levels.

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广义信任何时重要？产业地化对贸易偏好形成的影响


广义信任作为一种影响政治和经济国际合作中风险感知的非物质倾向而受到关注。然而，它对公众对自由贸易或贸易协定的支持的影响一直存在争议。这场辩论的焦点是贸易的经济影响对普通公民来说是明显的还是不确定的，因为只有当贸易影响不确定且风险感知至关重要时，广义信任才会发挥作用。然而，贸易影响的可见性因经济环境而异。本研究探讨了工业第三化，即从农业和制造业向服务业的转变，在改变贸易影响的可见性方面的作用。它假设广义信任主要影响高度三级化的地方经济的贸易偏好。使用 2016 年美国全国选举研究和世界价值观调查第 7 波的数据，这一假设得到了检验和证实。本研究通过证明广义信任对贸易偏好的影响随当地第三化水平的变化而变化，从而为文献做出了贡献。它还为理解发达国家的反全球化提出了新的因果机制，并表明经济影响对贸易偏好的影响可能同样取决于当地的第三级化水平。