Background Multiple myeloma (MM) is an important haematological malignancy in older adults, with a relatively poor prognosis. We aimed to present the current global patterns of incidence and mortality from MM, and predict new cases and deaths by 2045. Methods Estimated numbers of MM cases and deaths and age-standardized (World) incidence and mortality rates per 100,000 people were obtained from the GLOBOCAN 2022 database covering 185 countries. Based on the incidence and mortality rates for 2022 and UN population estimates up to 2045, cases and deaths were predicted up to 2045. Findings Globally, 188,000 MM cases and 121,000 deaths were estimated in 2022. Eastern Asia and Northern America accounted for one-fifth of all cases each (21% and 19% respectively), followed by South-Central Asia (11%), and Western Europe (9%). The incidence rates were higher in men than in women with similar geographical patterns. While the incidence rates were highest in Northern America and Australia/New Zealand (≥4/100,000 for both sexes combined), the highest mortality rates (1.8/100,000) were found in Australia/New Zealand, Northern Europe, and Southern Africa. In the absence of changing rates, the estimated incidence and mortality of MM will increase by 71% and 79%, respectively by 2045 relative to 2022. Interpretation Our study highlights the substantial burden and variations in MM incidence and mortality reflecting global disparities in diagnosis and treatment. Improved surveillance and better disease control is needed to mitigate the global impact of MM in the presence of population aging and growth.

中文翻译：

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2022 年全球多发性骨髓瘤发病率和死亡率负担及 2045 年预测


背景 多发性骨髓瘤 （MM） 是老年人中一种重要的血液系统恶性肿瘤，预后相对较差。我们旨在呈现当前全球 MM 发病率和死亡率模式，并预测到 2045 年的新病例和死亡人数。方法 从涵盖 185 个国家的 GLOBOCAN 2022 数据库中获得估计的 MM 病例和死亡人数以及每 100,000 人的年龄标准化 （世界） 发病率和死亡率。根据 2022 年的发病率和死亡率以及截至 2045 年的联合国人口估计，预测了到 2045 年的病例和死亡人数。调查结果 2022 年，全球估计有 188,000 例 MM 病例和 121,000 例死亡。东亚和北美各占所有病例的五分之一（分别为 21% 和 19%），其次是中南亚 （11%） 和西欧 （9%）。具有相似地理模式的男性发病率高于女性。虽然北美和澳大利亚/新西兰的发病率最高 （男女合计 ≥4/100,000），但澳大利亚/新西兰、北欧和南部非洲的死亡率最高 （1.8/100,000）。在没有变化率的情况下，到 2045 年，MM 的估计发病率和死亡率将相对于 2022 年分别增加 71% 和 79%。解释 我们的研究强调了 MM 发病率和死亡率的巨大负担和差异，反映了诊断和治疗的全球差异。在人口老龄化和增长的情况下，需要改进监测和更好的疾病控制，以减轻 MM 的全球影响。