Coal remains a significant energy source globally, with the United States holding a substantial portion of the world’s coal reserves but it creates the dangerous effects of global warming. Despite its abundance, questions arise regarding the accessibility and environmental impact of coal reserves. Therefore, this research forecasted the future of coal reserves, coal prices, electricity from coal, carbon emissions and coal phase-out targets globally using the SARIMAX Python® model for the study period 2023 to 2050 by using the economic data from the year 1980 to 2022. It is found that, the global coal reserve capacity is 1.07 trillion tons with an average coal prices vary with region to region, ranging from US $130 per tone to US $206 per tone until 2050. The global production of electricity from coal will also increase from 10415.49 TWh in 2023 to 13316.57 TWh until 2040 and 15243.36 TWh until 2050 which ultimately enhances the production of carbon emissions, increases from 157,768 billion metric tons in 2023 to 188,535 billion metric tons until 2040 and 215,077 billion metric tons until 2050. Furthermore, this study undertakes and presented the country wise examination of coal phase out and it is found that in many countries 75% of coal will phase out by 2030 and 100% by 2040 for meeting the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 1.5 0C targets. Therefore there is a dire need to shift towards cleaner energy sources, leading to a decline in coal-fired power generation and a trend towards coal phase-out.

中文翻译：

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全球煤炭发展进展：追踪煤炭储量、煤炭价格、煤炭发电、碳排放和煤炭淘汰


煤炭仍然是全球重要的能源，美国拥有世界煤炭储量的很大一部分，但它造成了全球变暖的危险影响。尽管煤炭储量丰富，但关于煤炭储量的可及性和对环境的影响仍然存在疑问。因此，本研究使用 SARIMAX Python® 模型利用 1980 年至 2022 年的经济数据，预测了 2023 年至 2050 年研究期间全球煤炭储量、煤炭价格、煤炭发电、碳排放和煤炭淘汰目标的未来。研究发现，全球煤炭储量为 1.07 万亿吨，平均煤炭价格因地区而异，到 2050 年从每吨 130 美元到每吨 206 美元不等。全球煤炭发电量也将从 2023 年的 10415.49 TWh 增加到 2040 年的 13316.57 TWh，到 2050 年增加到 15243.36 TWh，这最终提高了碳排放量，从 2023 年的 1577.768 亿公吨增加到 2040 年的 1885.35 亿公吨，到 2050 年增加到 2150770 亿公吨。此外，本研究对煤炭淘汰进行了国家明智的审查，发现在许多国家，到 2030 年将淘汰 75% 的煤炭，到 2040 年将淘汰 100%，以实现政府间气候变化专门委员会 （IPCC） 1.5 0C 目标。因此，迫切需要转向更清洁的能源，导致燃煤发电量下降，并出现逐步淘汰煤炭的趋势。