Population change in Germany at the subnational level is particularly driven by changes in net international migration and shifts in internal migration flows between urbanisation, suburbanisation and counter‐urbanisation. Official population projections at the county level use a single scenario, thereby omitting uncertainty that arises from changing patterns in the assumed components of demographic change. We use a cohort‐component model that incorporates the spatial distribution of a net number of international migrants and internal migration matrices to provide population projections for 401 counties in Germany until 2070, encompassing nine total international and internal migration scenario combinations. Our results show a full potential outcome space of future subnational population change in Germany and highlight the variability in this possible change in terms of population structure, size, and spatial distribution. Across the scenarios, the total population of Germany is projected to be between 74.25 and 86.84 million people in 2040 (83.4 in 2023). There are also considerable differences in how the total population and its distribution might change spatially, both between urban and rural areas and in age structure. Thus, depending on the assumed absolute level of net international migration and the direction of internal migratory patterns we, highlight how internal and international migration patterns will continue to play a large role in future population development in Germany at the county level.

中文翻译：

---

德国未来地方人口变化：国内和国际移民的作用


德国地方一级的人口变化尤其受到国际净移民变化以及城市化、郊区化和反城市化之间国内移民流动变化的驱动。县级的官方人口预测使用单一情景，从而忽略了因人口变化的假设组成部分的模式变化而产生的不确定性。我们使用队列成分模型，该模型结合了国际移民净数量的空间分布和内部移民矩阵，以提供到 2070 年德国 401 个县的人口预测，包括 9 个国际和国内移民情景组合。我们的结果显示了德国未来地方人口变化的完整潜在结果空间，并强调了这种可能的变化在人口结构、规模和空间分布方面的可变性。综上所述，预计 2040 年德国总人口将在 74.25 至 8684 万人之间（2023 年为 83.4 人）。总人口及其分布在空间上的变化也存在相当大的差异，无论是在城市和农村地区之间还是在年龄结构上。因此，根据假设的国际净移民绝对水平和国内移民模式的方向，我们强调了国内和国际移民模式将如何继续在德国县级的未来人口发展中发挥重要作用。