The adoption of hydrogen as a viable alternative for kerosene in the aviation sector has attracted significant attention. However, comprehending the environmental impacts of hydrogen pathways is a complex endeavor that relies on the specific production pathways employed. The aim of this study is to provide a Well-to-Wake analysis by examining the environmental effects six distinct hydrogen production pathways. Moreover, this research provides an estimating of hydrogen leakage and its indirect effects on the atmosphere. To achieve this, besides use the Aviation Integrated Model, an extensive review of numerous articles is incorporated to determine the value of equivalent of carbon dioxide of production pathways. The research predicts that 12.2 Mt, 10.6 Mt, and 7.3 Mt of unburned hydrogen will permeate the atmosphere in 2050 across the high, medium, and low demand scenarios, respectively. The penalty factor, which quantifies the additional environmental impact of hydrogen pathways compared to conventional jet fuel, for electrolysis from renewable resources ranges from −1.37 to −0.02 kg of carbon dioxide equivalent per hectojoule (kg CO2eq/hJ) in the mid-demand scenario, while renewable thermal water splitting consistently maintains a negative penalty factor, reaching −0.30 kg CO2eq/hJ by 2050. In contrast, electrolysis from the existing electricity grid’s penalty factor is projected to increase dramatically from −1.27 to 12.23 kg CO2eq/hJ by 2050 under the mid-demand scenario.

中文翻译：

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到 2050 年评估氢能途径对航空业的气候影响


在航空领域采用氢气作为煤油的可行替代品引起了广泛关注。然而，理解氢途径对环境的影响是一项复杂的工作，它依赖于所采用的特定生产途径。本研究的目的是通过检查六种不同的制氢途径的环境影响来提供 Well-to-Wake 分析。此外，这项研究还提供了对氢泄漏及其对大气的间接影响的估计。为了实现这一目标，除了使用航空集成模型外，还对大量文章进行了广泛的审查，以确定生产途径的二氧化碳当量的价值。该研究预测，到 2050 年，12.2 Mt、10.6 Mt 和 7.3 Mt 的未燃烧氢气将分别渗透到高、中和低需求情景中的大气中。在中等需求情景下，可再生资源电解的惩罚因子（量化了与传统喷气燃料相比氢气途径对环境的额外影响）为每百焦耳 （kg CO2eq/hJ） -1.37 至 -0.02 千克二氧化碳当量，而可再生热水分解始终保持负惩罚因子，到 2050 年达到 -0.30 kg CO2eq/hJ。相比之下，在中等需求情景下，到 2050 年，现有电网的惩罚因子产生的电解量预计将从 -1.27 公斤二氧化碳当量/hJ 急剧增加至 12.23 千克二氧化碳当量/hJ。