Predicting how rising temperatures will impact different species and communities is imperative and increasingly urgent with ongoing global warming. Here, we describe how thermal–death time curves obtained in the laboratory can be combined with an envelope model to predict the mortality of freshwater fish under field conditions and their distribution limits. We analyze the heat tolerance and distribution of 22 fish species distributed across North America and demonstrate that high temperatures imposed a distribution boundary for 11 of them, employing a null model. Importantly, predicted thermal boundaries closely match the warmest suitable locality of the envelope model. Simulated warming suggests that the distribution of fish species with lower heat tolerances will be disproportionately affected by rising temperatures, and the rate of local extinctions will be higher across fish communities in warmer localities. Ultimately, our analyses illustrate how physiological information can be combined with distribution models to forecast how warming temperatures are expected to impact different species and ecological communities.

中文翻译：

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温度波动中的累积热应激及其对淡水鱼分布的影响


随着全球变暖的持续，预测气温上升将如何影响不同的物种和群落势在必行，而且越来越紧迫。在这里，我们描述了如何将实验室获得的热-死亡时间曲线与包络模型相结合，以预测田间条件下淡水鱼的死亡率及其分布极限。我们分析了分布在北美的 22 种鱼类的耐热性和分布，并证明高温对其中 11 种鱼类施加了分布边界，采用零模型。重要的是，预测的热边界与包络模型最温暖的适宜位置非常匹配。模拟变暖表明，耐热性较低的鱼类物种的分布将受到温度升高的不成比例的影响，并且在较温暖地区的鱼类群落中，局部灭绝的速度将更高。最终，我们的分析说明了如何将生理信息与分布模型相结合，以预测预计变暖温度将如何影响不同的物种和生态群落。