We develop and apply a modelling framework to estimate the micro-level employment impacts of climate policies in Aotearoa New Zealand. Our approach links an economy-wide model with a micro simulation module to calculate employment changes for different groups of the population across several dimensions (and combinations of dimensions), including sectoral, geospatial, demographic, and socio-economic categories. By simulating the linked modelling framework out to 2050 for proposed climate policies, we estimate which industries, workers, and jobs are expected to be most affected by these policies. Industries that experience the largest negative employment impacts include coal mining, oil and gas extraction, and some manufacturing activities. Reflecting the deployment of labour-intensive abatement options, some agriculture industries experience the largest employment increases. Workers that incur a disproportionate share of the transition are older, have lower levels of education, or are Māori. Employment transitions are also concentrated in certain regions. The results and modelling tools can help the New Zealand government formulate policies to ensure a ‘just transition’ to a low carbon future.

中文翻译：

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寻找公正的转型：气候政策对就业的微观影响


我们开发并应用了一个建模框架来估计新西兰 Aotearoa 气候政策对就业的微观影响。我们的方法将整个经济的模型与微观模拟模块联系起来，以计算不同人群在多个维度（和维度组合）上的就业变化，包括部门、地理空间、人口和社会经济类别。通过模拟到 2050 年拟议气候政策的关联建模框架，我们估计预计哪些行业、工人和工作将受这些政策的影响最大。对就业产生负面影响最大的行业包括煤矿开采、石油和天然气开采以及一些制造业活动。由于部署了劳动密集型减排方案，一些农业行业的就业增长幅度最大。在过渡中承担不成比例份额的工人年龄较大、受教育程度较低或是毛利人。就业转型也集中在某些地区。结果和建模工具可以帮助新西兰政府制定政策，以确保向低碳未来的“公正过渡”。