There is a paucity of data reporting the positive and negative predictive values (PPV, NPV) of acute declines in lung function on chronic lung allograft dysfunction (CLAD). We sought to define the predictive ability of single or repeated FEV1 declines for at least 3 weeks on the development of CLAD or death by 1-year. We analyzed 340 subjects with at least 3 years of follow-up data from two lung transplant centers. A single ≥10% FEV1 decline had a PPV of 35% and NPV of 63%, and a repeated ≥10% FEV1 decline for at least 3 weeks had a PPV of 44% and NPV of 65%. Notably, the proportion of individuals with incipient CLAD at the time of a single or repeated ≥20% FEV1 decline was 50% and 71%, respectively. These estimates could inform the development of acute lung allograft dysfunction FEV1 thresholds as enrollment criteria or surrogate outcome measures.

中文翻译：

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单次和重复 ≥10% FEV1 对慢性肺同种异体移植物功能障碍的预后价值下降。


缺乏数据报告肺功能急性下降对慢性肺同种异体移植物功能障碍 （CLAD） 的阳性和阴性预测值 （PPV， NPV）。我们试图确定至少 3 周单次或反复 FEV1 下降对 CLAD 发展或 1 年死亡的预测能力。我们分析了来自两个肺移植中心的 340 名受试者，这些受试者至少有 3 年的随访数据。单次 ≥10% FEV1 下降的 PPV 为 35%，NPV 为 63%，至少 3 周重复 ≥10% 的 FEV1 下降，PPV 为 44%，NPV 为 65%。值得注意的是，在单次或重复 ≥20% FEV1 下降时，早期 CLAD 个体的比例分别为 50% 和 71%。这些估计可以为急性肺同种异体移植物功能障碍 FEV1 阈值的发展提供信息，作为入组标准或替代结局指标。