The making of international law through multilateral conventions and adjudication often leads to periods of legal uncertainty, times in which there are alternative rules and divergent views on how they ought to be applied to particular cases. I argue that legal uncertainty gives states opportunities and incentives to formulate excessive unilateral claims, thus making disputes more likely to arise. I illustrate my argument with a comprehensive analysis of maritime boundary disputes in the aftermath of the Second World War. In this period, the law regulating maritime boundary-making has been marked by varying degrees of uncertainty due to different rules and interpretations proffered by various multilateral and judicial lawmaking attempts. I find strong evidence that high legal uncertainty is associated with an increased probability of dispute onset. The analysis calls for an important rethinking of the impact of legalization on international affairs, both in maritime boundary-making and in other issues areas.

中文翻译：

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争议发生背后的法律：法律不确定性如何推动海洋边界争议


通过多边公约和裁决制定国际法往往会导致法律不确定的时期，在这个时期，存在替代规则，并且对如何将其应用于特定案件存在不同的看法。我认为，法律的不确定性为各国提供了制定过多的单方面索赔的机会和动机，从而更容易出现争议。我通过对第二次世界大战后海洋边界争端的全面分析来说明我的论点。在此期间，由于各种多边和司法立法尝试提供不同的规则和解释，规范海洋边界制定的法律具有不同程度的不确定性。我发现强有力的证据表明，高度的法律不确定性与争议发生的可能性增加有关。该分析呼吁对合法化对国际事务的影响进行重要的反思，无论是在海洋边界的制定还是在其他问题领域。