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Fragility Modeling of Power Grid Infrastructure for Addressing Climate Change Risks and Adaptation
WIREs Climate Change ( IF 9.4 ) Pub Date : 2024-12-04 , DOI: 10.1002/wcc.930
George Karagiannakis, Mathaios Panteli, Sotirios Argyroudis

The resilience of electric power grids is threatened by natural hazards. Climate‐related hazards are becoming more frequent and intense due to climate change. Statistical analyses clearly demonstrate a rise in the number of incidents (power failures) and their consequences in recent years. Therefore, it is of utmost importance to understand and quantify the resilience of the infrastructure to external stressors, which is essential for developing efficient climate change adaptation strategies. To accomplish this, robust fragility and other vulnerability models are necessary. These models are employed to assess the level of asset damage and to quantify losses for given hazard intensity measures. In this context, a comprehensive literature review is carried out to shed light on existing fragility models specific to the transmission network, distribution network, and substations. The review is organized into three main sections: damage assessment, fragility curves, and recommendations for climate change adaptation. The first section provides a comprehensive review of past incidents, their causes, and failure modes. The second section reviews analytical and empirical fragility models, emphasizing the need for further research on compound and non‐compound hazards, especially windstorms, floods, lightning, and wildfires. Finally, the third section examines risk mitigation and adaptation strategies in the context of climate change. This review aims to improve the understanding of approaches to enhance the resilience of power grid assets in the face of climate change. These insights are valuable to various stakeholders, including risk analysts and policymakers, who are involved in risk modeling and developing adaptation strategies.

中文翻译:


电网基础设施的脆弱性建模,用于应对气候变化风险和适应



电网的弹性受到自然灾害的威胁。由于气候变化,与气候相关的灾害变得越来越频繁和严重。统计分析清楚地表明,近年来事故(停电)的数量及其后果有所增加。因此,了解和量化基础设施对外部压力源的适应能力至关重要,这对于制定有效的气候变化适应策略至关重要。为了实现这一目标,需要稳健的脆弱性和其他脆弱性模型。这些模型用于评估资产损坏的程度,并量化给定灾害强度测量的损失。在此背景下,进行了全面的文献综述,以阐明特定于输电网络、配电网络和变电站的现有脆弱性模型。该审查分为三个主要部分:损害评估、脆弱性曲线和气候变化适应建议。第一部分全面回顾了过去的事件、其原因和故障模式。第二部分回顾了分析和实证脆弱性模型,强调需要进一步研究复合和非复合灾害,尤其是风暴、洪水、闪电和野火。最后,第三部分研究了气候变化背景下的风险缓解和适应策略。本综述旨在提高对增强电网资产在面对气候变化时的弹性的方法的理解。这些见解对参与风险建模和制定适应策略的各种利益相关者(包括风险分析师和政策制定者)都很有价值。
更新日期:2024-12-04
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