In many low‐fertility countries, immigration is increasingly seen a solution to the twin problem of rural depopulation and skill shortages. In Australia, this takes the form of regional visa schemes that require both skilled and humanitarian migrants to reside initially in nonmetropolitan regions for a minimum of 2 years. In the absence of nationally representative longitudinal data, the efficacy of this policy is yet to be assessed. Applying survival analysis to novel administrative data from the Person Level Integrated Data Asset (PLIDA), this paper establishes the level and determinants of rural retention among immigrants who arrived between January and August 2011 on eight different visas and compares these to the Australian population to the end of 2019. Our results suggest that regional visa schemes are effective in attracting permanent skilled migrants but not in retaining them, even when controlling for socio‐demographic characteristics. Migrants on regional skilled visa and temporary skilled workers display a 40% 9‐year retention rate compared with over 50% for Australian and New Zealand citizens, permanent family, skilled and humanitarian migrants and 30% for students. In contrast, the low retention of temporary skilled migrants is largely the product of their younger and more educated profile. We identify a negative selection process by which immigrants with less‐education, lower incomes, or less English proficiency—including humanitarian migrants—are more likely to stay in nonmetropolitan regions. This outcome signifies a process of socio‐spatial polarisation and a segmented labour market. At a regional‐level, we find that regions with a diverse occupational mix and co‐ethnic networks are more likely to retain immigrants whereas those with high housing costs are significantly less likely. These results provide policy levers to boost rural retention.

中文翻译：

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在澳大利亚农村保留永久和临时移民：基于地方和个人的决定因素


在许多低生育率国家，移民越来越被视为解决农村人口减少和技能短缺这两个问题的方法。在澳大利亚，这采取了区域签证计划的形式，要求技术和人道主义移民最初在非大都市地区居住至少 2 年。在缺乏具有全国代表性的纵向数据的情况下，该政策的有效性尚待评估。本文将生存分析应用于来自个人层面综合数据资产 （PLIDA） 的新行政数据，确定了 2011 年 1 月至 8 月期间持八种不同签证抵达的移民的农村保留水平和决定因素，并将其与截至 2019 年底的澳大利亚人口进行了比较。我们的结果表明，即使在控制社会人口特征的情况下，区域签证计划也能有效地吸引永久技术移民，但不能留住他们。持有区域技术签证的移民和临时技术工人的 9 年保留率为 40%，而澳大利亚和新西兰公民、永久家庭、技术和人道主义移民的保留率超过 50%，学生为 30%。相比之下，临时技术移民的低保留率主要是他们年轻和受教育程度更高的产物。我们确定了一个消极的选择过程，通过该过程，受教育程度较低、收入较低或英语熟练度较低的移民（包括人道主义移民）更有可能留在非大都市地区。这一结果意味着社会空间两极分化和劳动力市场分割的过程。 在区域层面，我们发现具有不同职业组合和同族网络的地区更有可能留住移民，而住房成本高的地区则不太可能。这些结果为提高农村保留率提供了政策杠杆。