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‘Tipping points’ confuse and can distract from urgent climate action
Nature Climate Change ( IF 29.6 ) Pub Date : 2024-12-03 , DOI: 10.1038/s41558-024-02196-8
Robert E. Kopp, Elisabeth A. Gilmore, Rachael L. Shwom, Helen Adams, Carolina Adler, Michael Oppenheimer, Anand Patwardhan, Chris Russill, Daniela N. Schmidt, Richard York

Tipping points have gained substantial traction in climate change discourses. Here we critique the ‘tipping point’ framing for oversimplifying the diverse dynamics of complex natural and human systems and for conveying urgency without fostering a meaningful basis for climate action. Multiple social scientific frameworks suggest that the deep uncertainty and perceived abstractness of climate tipping points render them ineffective for triggering action and setting governance goals. The framing also promotes confusion between temperature-based policy benchmarks and properties of the climate system. In both natural and human systems, we advocate for clearer, more specific language to describe the phenomena labelled as tipping points and for critical evaluation of whether, how and why different framings can support scientific understanding and climate risk management.



中文翻译:


“引爆点”会让人感到困惑,并可能分散对紧急气候行动的注意力



引爆点在气候变化话语中获得了巨大的吸引力。在这里,我们批评了“临界点”框架,它过度简化了复杂的自然和人类系统的不同动态,并在没有为气候行动建立有意义的基础的情况下传达了紧迫性。多个社会科学框架表明,气候临界点的深度不确定性和感知的抽象性使其无法有效地触发行动和设定治理目标。这种框架还促进了基于温度的政策基准和气候系统特性之间的混淆。在自然和人类系统中,我们倡导使用更清晰、更具体的语言来描述标记为临界点的现象,并批判性地评估不同的框架是否、如何以及为什么可以支持科学理解和气候风险管理。

更新日期:2024-12-03
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