Disputes over cost allocation can present a significant barrier to investment in shared infrastructure. While it may be desirable to allocate cost in a way that corresponds to expected benefits, investments in long-lived projects are made under conditions of substantial uncertainty. In the context of electricity transmission, uncertainty combined with the inherent complexity of power systems analysis prevents the calculation of an estimated distribution of benefits that is agreeable to all participants. To analyze aspects of the cost allocation problem, we construct a model for transmission and generation expansion planning under uncertainty, enabling the identification of transmission investments as well as the calculation of benefits for users of the network. Numerical tests confirm the potential for realized benefits at the participant level to differ significantly from ex ante estimates. Based on the model and numerical tests we discuss several issues, including (1) establishing a valid counterfactual against which to measure benefits, (2) allocating cost to new and incumbent generators vs. solely allocating to loads, (3) calculating benefits at the portfolio vs. the individual project level, (4) identifying losers in a surplus-enhancing transmission expansion, and (5) quantifying the divergence between cost allocation decisions made ex ante and benefits realized ex post.

中文翻译：

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模糊下的传输优势和成本分配


成本分配的争议可能会对共享基础设施的投资构成重大障碍。虽然以与预期收益相对应的方式分配成本可能是可取的，但对长期项目的投资是在存在重大不确定性的条件下进行的。在输电的背景下，不确定性加上电力系统分析的固有复杂性，无法计算出所有参与者都同意的估计利益分配。为了分析成本分配问题的各个方面，我们构建了一个在不确定性下进行输电和发电扩展规划的模型，从而能够识别输电投资并计算网络用户的利益。数字测试证实，参与者层面的已实现收益可能与事前估计有很大差异。基于模型和数值测试，我们讨论了几个问题，包括 （1） 建立衡量收益的有效反事实，（2） 将成本分配给新的和现有的发电机，而不是仅仅分配给负载，（3） 计算投资组合与单个项目层面的收益，（4） 确定增加盈余的输电扩张中的输家，以及 （5） 量化事前做出的成本分配决策与事后实现的收益之间的差异。