The biodiversity of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA) is increasingly under threat due to anthropogenic stressors and climate change challenges, despite 15.72% of the landscape being planned as protected areas (PAs). The uncertain risks of high-density urban sprawl and sea level rise pose challenges for future biodiversity conservation in the GBA. To effectively gauge the impact of PAs for biodiversity conservation, it’s imperative to delve into not only the pattern but the process of biodiversity. Adopting a dynamic view for biodiversity assessment, our study established a synergistic approach within a systematic conservation planning framework, focusing on comprehensively assessing the future conservation effectiveness of PAs. Four modeling techniques were integrated in the process to estimate conservation priorities under various future scenarios: SLAMM and Dyna-CLUE projected future land-use changes, MaxEnt predicted shifts in habitat suitability for key species, and Zonation identified conservation priorities thereby. The results indicated a potential shift in conservation priorities over time from inland to coastal areas across different cities in the GBA, highlighting the substantial mismatches between current PAs and high-priority areas in Guangdong and the urgency for prompt conservation actions. Moreover, our findings revealed that proposed PA system has not sufficiently prioritized wetland conservation, nor has it effectively conserved amphibian, plant and bird species. Our study provided a dynamic and comprehensive evaluation of biodiversity in the GBA and offered insightful conservation recommendations, thus demonstrating a viable approach for assessing and enhancing future conservation initiatives in similar contexts.

中文翻译：

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揭示粤港澳大湾区保护区保护生物多样性的未来成效


尽管 15.72% 的景观被规划为保护区 （PA），但由于人为压力因素和气候变化挑战，粤港澳大湾区 （GBA） 的生物多样性正日益受到威胁。高密度城市扩张和海平面上升的不确定性风险对大湾区未来的生物多样性保护构成了挑战。为了有效衡量保护区对生物多样性保护的影响，不仅要深入研究生物多样性的模式，还要深入研究生物多样性的过程。我们的研究采用动态的生物多样性评估观点，在系统的保护规划框架内建立了一种协同方法，重点是全面评估保护区的未来保护效果。在此过程中集成了四种建模技术，以估计各种未来情景下的保护优先事项：SLAMM 和 Dyna-CLUE 预测未来的土地利用变化，MaxEnt 预测关键物种栖息地适宜性的变化，分区由此确定保护优先事项。结果表明，随着时间的推移，大湾区不同城市的保护重点可能会从内陆地区转移到沿海地区，这凸显了当前保护区与广东省高度优先地区之间的严重不匹配，以及迅速采取保护行动的紧迫性。此外，我们的研究结果表明，拟议的 PA 系统没有充分优先考虑湿地保护，也没有有效地保护两栖动物、植物和鸟类物种。我们的研究对大湾区的生物多样性进行了动态和全面的评估，并提供了有见地的保育建议，从而为评估和加强类似背景下的未来保育举措提供了可行的方法。