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Urbanization effects on temperature: 1826–1850
Urban Climate ( IF 6.0 ) Pub Date : 2024-11-22 , DOI: 10.1016/j.uclim.2024.102196
Donald F. Vitaliano

Mean, minimum and maximum monthly temperatures for 58 stations in New York State covering the period 1826–1850 are used to estimate a random effects panel regression. Controlling for latitude, elevation and seasonality, a statistically significant positive effect of population on minimum temperature is detected. At the mean population of 8500, the estimated effect is 0.19 °F (0.105 °C), which is consistent with published estimates for later periods. Mean and maximum temperature effects are +0.06 °F (+0.033 °C) and − 0.05 °F (−0.027 °C), respectively, but are not statistically significant. Microclimate and other unmeasured weather station heterogeneity is captured as a random ‘effects’ distribution variable, a novel treatment. Heat island effects appear to exist at very low levels of population when energy was based on animals and water power, perhaps due to loss of greenspace. Based on these results urbanization could contribute as much as 27.5 % to 41 % of the centennial temperature rise in New York.

中文翻译:


城市化对温度的影响:1826-1850 年



纽约州 58 个站点在 1826-1850 年期间的平均值、最低和最高月温度用于估计随机效应面板回归。控制纬度、海拔和季节性,检测到人口对最低温度的统计学显着积极影响。在平均人口 8500 人中,估计效应为 0.19 °F (0.105 °C),这与后期公布的估计值一致。平均和最高温度效应分别为 +0.06 °F (+0.033 °C) 和 -0.05 °F (-0.027 °C),但没有统计学意义。小气候和其他未测量的气象站异质性被捕获为随机“效应”分布变量,这是一种新颖的处理方法。当能源基于动物和水力时,热岛效应似乎存在于非常低的人口水平上,这可能是由于绿地的丧失。基于这些结果,城市化可能对纽约百年气温上升的贡献率高达 27.5% 至 41%。
更新日期:2024-11-22
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