The Dunning-Kruger effect describes how poor performers overestimate their abilities while top performers underestimate their abilities. This study explores whether this effect explains the ineffectiveness of cross-cutting discussions in reducing affective polarization. We propose a moderated mediation model in which the relationship between cross-cutting discussion (wave 1) and affective polarization (wave 2) is mediated by oppositional responses to disagreements, and this indirect relationship, specifically between cross-cutting discussion and opposition responses, is moderated by political overconfidence. Analyzing panel data from a two-wave online survey, the results suggest that the Dunning-Kruger effect is widespread in political knowledge and influences social media users’ behaviors and attitudes. Specifically, for example, those who are more overconfident engage in cross-cutting discussions, have more oppositional responses (e.g., posting criticisms or clicking “dislike”), and thus become more affectively polarized. This suggests that correcting the public’s perceived bias about their level of political knowledge may help reduce affective polarization.

中文翻译：

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政治过度自信如何助长跨领域讨论中的情感两极分化


邓宁-克鲁格效应描述了表现不佳的人如何高估自己的能力，而表现最好的人如何低估自己的能力。本研究探讨了这种效应是否解释了跨领域讨论在减少情感极化方面的无效性。我们提出了一个有调节的中介模型，其中跨领域讨论（第 1 波）和情感极化（第 2 波）之间的关系是由对分歧的对立反应介导的，而这种间接关系，特别是跨领域讨论和反对派反应之间的关系，是由政治过度自信调节的。分析来自两波在线调查的面板数据，结果表明 Dunning-Kruger 效应在政治知识中广泛存在，并影响社交媒体用户的行为和态度。具体来说，例如，那些过于自信的人参与跨领域讨论，有更多的反对反应（例如，发表批评或点击“不喜欢”），因此在情感上变得更加两极分化。这表明，纠正公众对其政治知识水平的感知偏见可能有助于减少情感两极分化。