Changing temperature and precipitation patterns are shaping tree climate-growth limitations. The influence of climate change affects individual tree species differently, and can also differ across extensive geographical regions. The Carpathians, a vast mountainous area of Europe, host significant numbers of silver fir (Abies alba Mill.) and European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.), both of which exhibit distinct climate-growth responses despite sharing similar ecological niches. Our study aims to discern the effects of climate change across Carpathians and forecast the future growth trajectories of silver fir and European beech within this area. We selected eight sites along the Carpathian arc at similar elevations and edaphic conditions, dendrochronologically sampled and measured 15 mature canopy trees of both species. Using the Vaganov-Shashkin process-based model, we simulated radial growth and computed growing season variables as well as temperature and moisture limitations. Model calibration covered the period from 1985 to 2015. E-OBS data were then used to simulate the period between 1985 and 2022, while the bias-corrected prediction of the RCP 4.5 scenario was utilized for predictions from 2023 to 2050. Our research revealed three distinct regions in the Carpathians, each with varying climate-growth limitations: the northern, south-western, and south-eastern areas. Northern sites primarily experienced limitations due to cold temperatures, while southern sites were predominantly constrained by insufficient moisture, intensifying eastward. Silver fir in northern sites exhibited significant low-temperature limitations and showed a higher response to climate conditions compared to European beech. Conversely, European beech consistently showed higher moisture-driven growth limitations than silver fir, indicating a better adaptability of silver fir to dryer conditions. Differences between recent and future periods were non-significant in most cases. However, there was a gradual convergence of northern sites to climatically limited growth in south-western sites.

中文翻译：

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喀尔巴阡弧沿线欧洲山毛榉和银杉的气候生长限制——近期现状和未来展望


不断变化的温度和降水模式正在塑造树木气候生长的限制。气候变化对单个树种的影响不同，在广泛的地理区域也可能有所不同。喀尔巴阡山脉是欧洲广阔的山区，拥有大量的银冷杉 （Abies alba Mill.） 和欧洲山毛榉 （Fagus sylvatica L.），尽管它们具有相似的生态位，但两者都表现出不同的气候生长反应。我们的研究旨在辨别气候变化对喀尔巴阡山脉的影响，并预测该地区银杉和欧洲山毛榉的未来生长轨迹。我们沿喀尔巴阡弧选择了 8 个海拔和海拔条件相似的地点，对树轮年代学采样进行了采样，并测量了两个物种的 15 棵成熟的树冠树木。使用基于 Vaganov-Shashkin 过程的模型，我们模拟了径向生长并计算了生长季节变量以及温度和湿度限制。模型校准涵盖 1985 年至 2015 年期间。然后使用 E-OBS 数据模拟 1985 年至 2022 年期间，而 RCP 4.5 情景的偏差校正预测用于 2023 年至 2050 年的预测。我们的研究揭示了喀尔巴阡山脉的三个不同地区，每个地区都有不同的气候生长限制：北部、西南部和东南部地区。北部站点主要受到低温的限制，而南部站点主要受到水分不足的限制，向东加剧。与欧洲山毛榉相比，北部地区的银冷杉表现出明显的低温限制，并且对气候条件表现出更高的响应。 相反，欧洲山毛榉始终表现出比银冷杉更高的水分驱动生长限制，这表明银冷杉对干燥条件的适应性更好。在大多数情况下，近期和未来时期之间的差异不显著。然而，北部站点逐渐趋同于西南部站点的气候限制生长。