Previous studies have shown that educational expectations of individuals with high socioeconomic status (SES) are relatively unaffected by low academic performance, a phenomenon called “sticky expectations.” However, this result might be biased by endogeneity and reverse causality between academic achievement and educational expectations. Using data from the Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study from 11 countries with a strict school-entry rule and building on the well-established finding that children born in the months before the school-entry cutoff underperform at school, we use birth month as an instrument to identify the causal effect of early academic achievement on parents’ expectations of university completion by parental education. Our findings based on the instrumental variable (IV) regression show that the moderation of social origin in the relationship between children’s performance and parental expectations is moderately overestimated in cross-sectional data. Nonetheless, the stickiness of high-SES parental expectations is confirmed in the IV model, proving that parental expectations are less affected by children’s early achievement when the parents are highly educated.

中文翻译：

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出生月份、早期学业成绩和父母对大学完成的期望：关于粘性期望的新测试


先前的研究表明，具有高社会经济地位 （SES） 的个人的教育期望相对不受学习成绩低的影响，这种现象称为“粘性期望”。然而，这一结果可能会因学业成绩和教育期望之间的内生性和反向因果关系而产生偏差。使用来自 11 个严格入学规则的国家/地区的国际数学和科学趋势研究的数据，并基于公认的发现，即在入学截止日期前几个月出生的儿童在学校表现不佳，我们使用出生月份作为工具来确定早期学业成绩对父母对父母教育完成大学的期望的因果效应。我们基于工具变量 （IV） 回归的结果表明，在横断面数据中，儿童表现与父母期望之间关系中社会出身的调节被适度高估。尽管如此，高 SES 父母期望的粘性在 IV 模型中得到证实，证明当父母受过高等教育时，父母期望受孩子早期成就的影响较小。