Due to rising concerns about climate change and anticipated energy demand increase the Norwegian government advocates for floating offshore wind to decarbonize its oil and gas industry on the Norwegian continental shelf (NCS). To realize this endeavor, small-scale projects are vital for driving technological innovation and cost reduction without incurring the risk of extensive losses. As floating wind is an immature technology, the relevant investment decision is complicated by a highly uncertain commodities market and strengthening environmental regulations. Hence, when making an investment decision, the operator should also consider objectives that are beyond economic value. In this work, we analyze the factors affecting the attractiveness of the floating offshore wind as means to decarbonize brownfield projects on the NCS by applying a multi-objective decision support system for corporate decision-makers. We develop a decision-making framework representing a stepwise approach for decision support based on qualitative and quantitative assessment. In this paper, we combine tools from multi-objective decision analysis and real options valuation to develop a decision framework addressing managerial flexibility under uncertainty. The framework allows for the choice between mutually exclusive alternatives considering multiple objectives and sources of uncertainty. By applying the framework to a case study on the NCS, our findings suggest that higher carbon payments do not enhance the attractiveness of OWFs, underscoring the importance of policy changes such as increased subsidies and cost reductions for promoting investments in the OWFs.

中文翻译：

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在不确定性下选择互斥替代方案的多目标决策框架：评估海上风电在 NCS 气田电气化中的竞争力


由于对气候变化的担忧日益加剧和预期的能源需求增加，挪威政府倡导使用漂浮式海上风电，以实现挪威大陆架 （NCS） 石油和天然气行业的脱碳。为了实现这一目标，小规模项目对于推动技术创新和降低成本而不会产生大面积损失的风险至关重要。由于漂浮式风电是一项不成熟的技术，相关投资决策因高度不确定的商品市场和日益严格的环境法规而变得复杂。因此，在做出投资决策时，运营商还应考虑超出经济价值的目标。在这项工作中，我们分析了影响漂浮式海上风电吸引力的因素，通过为企业决策者应用多目标决策支持系统，使 NCS 上的棕地项目脱碳。我们开发了一个决策框架，代表了基于定性和定量评估的逐步决策支持方法。在本文中，我们结合了多目标决策分析和实物期权估值的工具，开发了一个决策框架，解决了不确定性下的管理灵活性问题。该框架允许在考虑多个目标和不确定性来源的情况下在互斥的替代方案之间进行选择。通过将该框架应用于 NCS 的案例研究，我们的研究结果表明，更高的碳支付不会增强 OWF 的吸引力，强调了政策变化（如增加补贴和降低成本）对促进 OWF 投资的重要性。