Urban planning has widely become a key policy tool for managing urban growth. However, understanding the role of urban planning in shaping land development and directing urbanization is still contentious across various socioeconomic and geographical contexts. This paper conducts an in-depth analysis of urban spatial transformation in Austin, Texas across three distinct periods: the pre-planning period (1992–2001), the Envision Central Texas (ECT) period (2001–2011), and the Imagine Austin Comprehensive Plan (IACP) period (2011–2019). The findings reveal a marked decline in urban sprawl and the construction of new low-intensity development zones after 2001. Simultaneously, there was a noticeable increase in the percentage of newly transitioned high-intensity developed land. Employing Geographically Weighted Logistic Regression (GWLR) modeling, the study provides a nuanced understanding of how spatially varying planning intentions guided spatial planning practices since the mid-2000s. The results indicate a diminishing influence of traditional factors on urban transformation while the role of planning intentions saw increasing prominence over time. Amongst the different planning intentions, those related to 'development centers' had less impact compared to those tied to protected areas and transport systems. The study establishes that IACP had a profound influence on Austin's urban spatial transformation, primarily due to its more clearly defined and explicit planning intentions compared to ECT. The research contributes to a deeper understanding of urban spatial transformation dynamics, which is vital for future planning initiatives aimed at sustainable urban development.

中文翻译：

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城市转型潜在因素的时空分析：量化德克萨斯州奥斯汀都会区城市规划意图的重要性


城市规划已广泛成为管理城市增长的关键政策工具。然而，在各种社会经济和地理背景下，理解城市规划在塑造土地开发和指导城市化方面的作用仍然存在争议。本文对德克萨斯州奥斯汀三个不同时期的城市空间转型进行了深入分析：预规划期（1992-2001 年）、设想德克萨斯州中部 （ECT） 时期（2001-2011 年）和想象奥斯汀综合规划 （IACP） 时期（2011-2019 年）。研究结果显示，2001 年后城市扩张和新的低强度开发区的建设显着下降。同时，新过渡的高强度已开发土地的百分比显着增加。该研究采用地理加权 Logistic 回归 （GWLR） 建模，对自 2000 年代中期以来空间变化的规划意图如何指导空间规划实践提供了细致的理解。结果表明，传统因素对城市转型的影响正在减弱，而随着时间的推移，规划意图的作用越来越突出。在不同的规划意图中，与保护区和交通系统相关的规划意图相比，与“发展中心”相关的意图的影响较小。该研究确定，IACP 对奥斯汀的城市空间转型产生了深远的影响，主要是因为与 ECT 相比，IACP 的规划意图更加明确和明确。该研究有助于更深入地了解城市空间转型动态，这对于旨在可持续城市发展的未来规划举措至关重要。