Nature Climate Change ( IF 29.6 ) Pub Date : 2024-11-21 , DOI: 10.1038/s41558-024-02180-2 Patrick L. Barnard, Kevin M. Befus, Jeffrey J. Danielson, Anita C. Engelstad, Li H. Erikson, Amy C. Foxgrover, Maya K. Hayden, Daniel J. Hoover, Tim W. B. Leijnse, Chris Massey, Robert McCall, Norberto C. Nadal-Caraballo, Kees Nederhoff, Andrea C. O’Neill, Kai A. Parker, Manoochehr Shirzaei, Leonard O. Ohenhen, Peter W. Swarzenski, Jennifer A. Thomas, Maarten van Ormondt, Sean Vitousek, Kilian Vos, Nathan J. Wood, Jeanne M. Jones, Jamie L. Jones
Faced with accelerating sea level rise and changing ocean storm conditions, coastal communities require comprehensive assessments of climate-driven hazard impacts to inform adaptation measures. Previous studies have focused on flooding but rarely on other climate-related coastal hazards, such as subsidence, beach erosion and groundwater. Here, we project societal exposure to multiple hazards along the Southeast Atlantic coast of the United States. Assuming 1 m of sea level rise, more than 70% of the coastal residents and US$1 trillion in property are in areas projected to experience shallow and emerging groundwater, 15 times higher than daily flooding. Storms increase flooding exposure by an order of magnitude over daily flooding, which could impact up to ~50% of all coastal residents and US$770 billion in property value. The loss of up to ~80% of present-day beaches and high subsidence rates that currently affect over 1 million residents will exacerbate flooding and groundwater hazard risks.
中文翻译:
美国东南大西洋多种气候相关沿海灾害的预测
面对海平面加速上升和不断变化的海洋风暴条件,沿海社区需要对气候驱动的灾害影响进行全面评估,以便为适应措施提供信息。以前的研究侧重于洪水,但很少关注其他与气候相关的沿海灾害,例如沉降、海滩侵蚀和地下水。在这里,我们预测了美国东南大西洋沿岸的社会暴露于多种危害中。假设海平面上升 1 米,超过 70% 的沿海居民和 1 万亿美元的财产位于预计会经历浅层和新兴地下水的地区,其地下水比每日洪水高 15 倍。与每日洪水相比,风暴使洪水风险增加一个数量级,这可能会影响高达 ~50% 的沿海居民和 7700 亿美元的财产价值。目前影响超过 100 万居民的当今海滩损失高达 ~80% 和高沉下降率将加剧洪水和地下水危害风险。