This study examines the persistence dynamics in Brazilian economic uncertainty, confidence, and expectation indexes, in both business and consumer sides of the economy. Using rolling window estimations of the fractional integration parameter, we assess how economic turbulence influences the persistence of these indexes. We find that economic uncertainty in Brazil is non-stationary but mean-reverting, with its persistence only transitorily affected by economic and political crises. Interestingly, confidence and expectation indexes displayed hysteretic behavior, with multiple persistence regimes linked to crises. These results may be informative for policymakers about the perceptions of the public and businessmen to economic shocks and crises.

中文翻译：

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巴西经济不确定性、预期和信心指数的持续动态


本研究考察了巴西经济不确定性、信心和预期指数在经济的商业和消费者方面的持续动态。使用分数阶积分参数的滚动窗口估计，我们评估了经济动荡如何影响这些指数的持久性。我们发现，巴西的经济不确定性是非平稳的，而是均值回归的，其持续性仅受到经济和政治危机的暂时影响。有趣的是，置信度和期望指数表现出滞后行为，与危机相关的多个持久性机制。这些结果可能为政策制定者了解公众和商人对经济冲击和危机的看法提供信息。