Investigating processes causing water resource depletion risks is key to understanding past, present, and future excessive irrigation water withdrawal. Quantitative spatiotemporal analysis of the factors driving excessive irrigation water withdrawal is currently inadequate. Although multiple drivers typically contribute to this risk, we studied, for the first time, whether and how Actual Irrigation Water Withdrawals (AIWW) could affect global future water resources projection. Here, we used AIWW datasets from five CMIP6 climate models based on two Shared Socioeconomic Scenarios (SSP370 and 585) and a global hydrological model (H08) to compare the historical (1981–2014) with the future periods: 2041–2070 and 2071–2100. Results show that the temporal AIWW average variations have shown a statistically significant increase during 1981–2014 (p<0.05 and R2 = 0.98) ranging from 101.82 to 136.24 mm yr−1 (mean = 120.5 mm yr−1). Under SSP370 and SSP585, the global spatial AIWW average during 2041–2070 and 2071–2100 are 142.55 and 145.55, and 144.91 and 149.74 mm yr−1, respectively. Under SSP370 and SSP585, the average AIWW changes for 2041–2070 and 2071–2100 are projected to be 96.71, 97.55, 103.52, and 106.98 %, respectively. Under SSP370 and 585, the average global AIWW anomaly changes for 2041–2070 and 2071–2100 are also projected to be −96.86, −106.29, −97.72, and −111.48 %, respectively. Higher AIWW increases are mainly concentrated in India, South China, parts of the United States, parts of Europe, and parts of South African and Latin American countries. Substantiated with population increase, and higher food demand, an increased AIWW will further aggravate globally. Thus, exploring future AIWW changes is a key step forward that requires greater attention in irrigation research interventions helpful to inform societies to reduce future risks of water resource depletion. Adaptation policies targeting the future use of water for irrigation are crucial to lessen water resource depletion risk, suggesting the need for large-scale policy interventions.

中文翻译：

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气候变化对全球灌溉取水的预计影响


调查导致水资源枯竭风险的过程是了解过去、现在和未来过度灌溉取水的关键。目前对导致灌溉过度取水的因素进行定量时空分析并不充分。尽管多种驱动因素通常会导致这种风险，但我们首次研究了实际灌溉取水量 （AIWW） 是否以及如何影响全球未来水资源预测。在这里，我们使用了来自五个 CMIP6 气候模型的 AIWW 数据集，这些模型基于两个共享社会经济情景（SSP370 和 585）和一个全球水文模型 （H08），将历史（1981-2014 年）与未来时期进行比较：2041-2070 年和 2071-2100 年。结果表明，在 1981-2014 年期间，时间 AIWW 平均变化显示出统计学上的显着增加（p<0.05 和 R2 = 0.98），范围从 101.82 到 136.24 mm yr-1（平均值 = 120.5 mm yr-1）。在 SSP370 和 SSP585 下，2041-2070 年和 2071-2100 年的全球空间 AIWW 平均值分别为 142.55 和 145.55，以及 144.91 和 149.74 毫米 yr-1。在 SSP370 和 SSP585 下，预计 2041-2070 年和 2071-2100 年的平均 AIWW 变化分别为 96.71%、97.55%、103.52% 和 106.98%。在 SSP370 和 585 下，预计 2041-2070 年和 2071-2100 年的全球平均 AIWW 距平变化也分别为 -96.86、-106.29、-97.72 和 -111.48%。较高的 AIWW 增幅主要集中在印度、华南地区、美国部分地区、欧洲部分地区以及南非和拉丁美洲国家的部分地区。随着人口增长和粮食需求增加，AIWW 的增加将进一步加剧全球范围。 因此，探索未来的 AIWW 变化是向前迈出的关键一步，需要对灌溉研究干预措施给予更多关注，有助于为社会提供信息，以减少未来水资源枯竭的风险。针对未来用水灌溉的适应政策对于降低水资源枯竭风险至关重要，这表明需要进行大规模的政策干预。