The building sector has a significant influence on energy use and environmental impact. When observing a university campus, reduction of energy use is a complex issue due to the variety of building types, usage, building construction age, and different implementation of improvement measures. To investigate how energy efficiency measures on a single building may influence the entire campus, a combination of building energy simulation and a scenario-based aggregation method using dynamic material flow analysis principles was implemented. This study investigated possible energy efficiency measures at a university campus in Trondheim, Norway. Scenario analysis was used to identify the most critical factors for future development and to evaluate to what extent the campus might develop towards a net zero-emission campus during the period 2017–2050. Four scenarios were introduced including two aspects: renovation of the existing building stock and changes in campus energy supply systems. The results on energy efficiency packages highlighted that saving potentials were highly dependent on the construction period of the buildings. The package combining envelope renovation and operation improvements showed the highest savings. The findings indicated that advanced renovation, including extensive use of heat pumps, might be the most promising strategy for reducing energy demand by 26 %.

中文翻译：

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探索 2050 年零排放建筑存量机会的动态建模方法 – 大学校园案例研究


建筑行业对能源使用和环境影响有重大影响。在观察大学校园时，由于建筑类型、用途、建筑施工年龄以及改进措施的实施方式不同，减少能源使用是一个复杂的问题。为了研究单个建筑物的能源效率措施如何影响整个园区，实施了建筑能源模拟和使用动态物料流分析原理的基于场景的聚合方法的组合。本研究调查了挪威特隆赫姆一所大学校园可能的能源效率措施。情景分析用于确定未来发展的最关键因素，并评估园区在 2017-2050 年期间可能在多大程度上朝着净零排放园区发展。引入了四种方案，包括两个方面：现有建筑存量的翻新和校园能源供应系统的变化。能效包的结果强调，节能潜力在很大程度上取决于建筑物的施工周期。将围护结构翻新和运营改进相结合的方案实现了最高的节约。研究结果表明，先进的改造，包括广泛使用热泵，可能是将能源需求减少 26% 的最有前途的策略。