Lodging is a critical factor in reducing sugarcane yields worldwide, mainly due to the selection of highly productive varieties. Understanding the response of yield and lodging to the combined effects of climate, sugarcane traits, and varieties has become a priority under climate change. The aim of this study was to better understand the influence of plant characteristics, climate, and soil conditions on the trade-off between sugarcane yield and lodging on the tropical Reunion Island. Data from a 14-year experimental network run by the eRcane breeding institute were used to build random-forest models to predict sugarcane yield and lodging classes, i.e. <10 %, 10–50 %, >50 % of lodging. Yield and lodging probability were then predicted across the island using climate change projections from 2015 to 2035. Both yield and lodging were highly influenced by the variety and characteristics (height and tillering) and climatic conditions. Areas on the island at high altitudes were subject to high probability of lodging (>50 %), while in areas with high wind speed, the risk of moderate lodging (10–50 %) increased. Overall, conditions or plant characteristics that favor higher yields increased lodging probability. Nevertheless, the correlation between yield and lodging probability varied considerably depending on the variety, highlighting the importance of sugarcane characteristics in resistance to lodging. This study highlights the fact that promoting more productive varieties in recent decades has led to an increase in lodging and identified critical environments on the island prone to increased risk of lodging.

中文翻译：

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气候、海拔、产量和品种驱动甘蔗倒伏：一种预测热带岛屿风险水平的随机森林方法


倒伏是降低全球甘蔗产量的一个关键因素，主要是由于选择了高产品种。了解产量和倒伏对气候、甘蔗性状和品种综合影响的响应已成为气候变化的优先事项。本研究的目的是更好地了解植物特性、气候和土壤条件对热带留尼汪岛甘蔗产量和住宿之间权衡的影响。来自 eRcane 育种研究所运行的 14 年实验网络的数据用于构建随机森林模型，以预测甘蔗产量和倒伏类别，即 <10 %、10-50 %、>50 % 倒伏。然后使用 2015 年至 2035 年的气候变化预测预测全岛的产量和倒伏概率。产量和倒伏都受到品种和特性 （高度和分蘖） 和气候条件的高度影响。岛上高海拔地区发生倒伏的可能性很高（x3E50 %），而在风速高的地区，中度倒伏的风险增加（10-50 %）。总体而言，有利于高产的条件或植物特性增加了倒伏概率。然而，产量和倒伏概率之间的相关性因品种而异，突出了甘蔗特性在抗倒伏方面的重要性。这项研究强调了这样一个事实，即近几十年来推广更高产的品种导致住宿增加，并确定了岛上容易增加住宿风险的关键环境。