Antibiotic resistance is a global public health threat. Many factors contribute to this issue, with human antibiotic consumption being significant among them. Analyzing trends and patterns in consumption can aid in developing policies to mitigate the burden of antimicrobial resistance and global disparities in access to antibiotics. Using pharmaceutical sales data licensed from IQVIA, we estimate national-level trends in antibiotic consumption in 67 countries during 2016–2023 and analyze the effects of economic growth and the COVID-19 pandemic. Finally, we estimate global human consumption and project growth through 2030 assuming current trends. We find that estimated antibiotic consumption in reported countries increased 16.3% from 29.5 to 34.3 billion defined daily doses (DDDs) from 2016 to 2023, reflecting a 10.6% increase in the consumption rate from 13.7 to 15.2 DDDs per 1,000 inhabitants per day. Increases were most pronounced in upper-middle- and lower-middle-income countries. While the COVID-19 pandemic significantly reduced consumption globally, this was most pronounced in high-income countries, and in these countries, reductions in antibiotic use in 2020 were sharper, and lasted longer, than in other countries. By 2030, we project that, without reductions in rapidly developing nations, such as investments to improve infrastructure, particularly water and sanitation, along with improved access to vaccination, global antibiotic consumption will increase by 52.3% from an estimated 49.3 billion in 2023 to 75.1 billion DDDs.

中文翻译：

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2016-2023 年全球抗生素消费趋势及到 2030 年的未来预测


抗生素耐药性是一个全球性的公共卫生威胁。导致此问题的因素有很多，其中人类抗生素消费量很大。分析消费趋势和模式有助于制定政策，以减轻抗微生物药物耐药性的负担和全球抗生素获取方面的差异。使用艾昆纬许可的药品销售数据，我们估计了 67 个国家/地区 2016-2023 年期间国家层面的抗生素消费趋势，并分析了经济增长和 COVID-19 大流行的影响。最后，我们估计了全球人类消费量，并预测了到 2030 年的增长，假设当前趋势。我们发现，从 2016 年到 2023 年，报告国家的抗生素消费量估计从 29.5 亿剂增加到 343 亿剂，增加了 16.3%，反映出每天每 1,000 名居民 DDD 的消费率增加了 10.6%，从 13.7 剂增加到 15.2 剂。中高收入和中低收入国家的增长最为明显。虽然 COVID-19 大流行显着减少了全球消费量，但这在高收入国家最为明显，在这些国家，2020 年抗生素使用量的减少幅度比其他国家更大，持续时间更长。我们预计，到 2030 年，如果不在快速发展的国家减少抗生素消费量，例如投资改善基础设施，特别是水和卫生设施，以及改善疫苗接种的机会，全球抗生素消费量将从 2023 年估计的 493 亿增加到 751 亿剂 DDD，增长 52.3%。