The Civil War was the deadliest conflict in US history. However, incomplete records have made it difficult to estimate the exact death toll both nationally, and especially, at the state level. In this article, we leverage the recently released full count of individual census returns and a sample of linked records across multiple censuses to provide i) the most precise national estimate of excess mortality to date and ii) reliable state-level estimates of excess mortality among native-born white males. Our national estimate is 698,000 Civil War deaths. This is substantially higher than the conventional historical estimate of 618,000 but lower than the most recent estimate of around 750,000 deaths based on a 1% census sample. Leveraging a novel migration-adjusted census comparison method, we document the extent to which the war’s toll was much greater in the Confederate states than in the Union.

中文翻译：

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根据全面人口普查记录对美国内战死亡率的新估计


南北战争是美国历史上最致命的冲突。然而，不完整的记录使得很难估计全国的确切死亡人数，尤其是在州一级。在本文中，我们利用最近发布的个人人口普查申报表的完整计数和多次人口普查的关联记录样本来提供 i） 迄今为止最精确的全国超额死亡率估计值，以及 ii） 可靠的州级本地出生的白人男性超额死亡率估计值。我们全国估计有 698,000 人死于内战。这大大高于传统的历史估计 618,000 人，但低于基于 1% 人口普查样本的最新估计约 750,000 人。利用一种新的移民调整后的人口普查比较方法，我们记录了战争在南方邦联州造成的死亡人数远大于联邦的程度。