Climate change poses complex risks without precedent that challenge established planning and risk management tools, including property insurance. The nature and timing of transitions in markets and institutions in response to growing climate risks will shape prospects for future socioeconomic well-being. As property insurance markets in the United States face higher levels of turmoil, policymakers are weighing various interventions to stabilize not only insurance but also housing and mortgage markets. We identify policy lessons based on the investigation of three bounding scenarios designed to address the question of how near-term (1 to 3 y) policy and regulatory choices surrounding insurance markets in Florida could influence medium-term (3 to 15 y) risk levels, disaster recovery, housing markets, and local economic outcomes. Since our policy choices today have a profound impact on future outcomes, careful consideration of the longer-term impacts of today’s policy choices is required to secure more effective and equitable adaptation decisions and pathways.

中文翻译：

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保险和气候风险：从三种边界情景中汲取的政策经验


气候变化带来了前所未有的复杂风险，对包括财产保险在内的既定规划和风险管理工具提出了挑战。市场和机构为应对日益增长的气候风险而进行转型的性质和时间将塑造未来社会经济福祉的前景。随着美国财产保险市场面临更高水平的动荡，政策制定者正在权衡各种干预措施，以稳定保险以及住房和抵押贷款市场。我们根据对三个边界情景的调查确定了政策教训，这些情景旨在解决围绕佛罗里达州保险市场的近期（1 至 3 年）政策和监管选择如何影响中期（3 至 15 年）风险水平、灾难恢复、住房市场和当地经济结果的问题。由于我们今天的政策选择对未来的结果有深远的影响，因此需要仔细考虑今天政策选择的长期影响，以确保更有效和公平的适应决策和途径。