We introduce a simple long-run aggregate demand and supply framework for evaluating long-run inflation. The framework illustrates how exogenous economic and political economy factors generate pressures that, in the presence of central bank discretion, can have an impact on long-run inflation as well as transitions between steady states. We use the analysis to provide a fresh perspective on the forces that drove global inflation downward over the past four decades. We argue that for inflation to remain low and stable in the future, political economy factors, such as strengthened central bank independence or more credible public debt policy, would need to offset the global economic pressures now pushing average long-run inflation upward.

我们引入了一个简单的长期总需求和供应框架来评估长期通胀。该框架说明了外生经济和政治经济因素如何产生压力，在央行自由裁量权存在的情况下，这些压力可能会对长期通胀以及稳态之间的过渡产生影响。我们利用该分析为过去四十年推动全球通胀下降的力量提供了新的视角。我们认为，要使通胀在未来保持低位和稳定，政治经济因素（例如加强央行独立性或更可信的公共债务政策）需要抵消目前推动平均长期通胀上升的全球经济压力。