Enhanced fire-prone weather under greenhouse gas warming can significantly affect local and global carbon budgets from increased fire occurrence, influencing carbon-climate feedbacks. However, the extent to which changes in fire-prone weather and associated carbon emissions can be mitigated by negative emissions remains uncertain. Here, we analyze fire weather responses in CO₂ removal climate model experiments and estimate their potential carbon emissions based on an observational relationship between fire weather and fire-induced CO₂ emissions. The results highlight that enhanced fire danger under global warming cannot be restored instantaneously by CO₂ reduction, mainly due to atmospheric dryness maintained by climatic inertia. The exacerbated fire danger is projected to contribute to extra CO₂ emissions in 68% of global regions due to the hysteresis of climate responses to CO₂ levels. These findings highlight that even under global cooling from negative emissions, increased fire activity may reinforce the fire-carbon-climate feedback loop and result in further socio-economic damage.

温室气体变暖下火灾易发天气的增加会因火灾发生率增加而显著影响当地和全球的碳收支，从而影响碳气候反馈。然而，负排放在多大程度上可以缓解火灾多发天气的变化和相关碳排放仍不确定。在这里，我们分析了 CO₂ 去除气候模型实验中的火灾天气响应，并根据火灾天气与火灾引起的 CO₂ 排放之间的观测关系估计其潜在的碳排放量。结果强调，全球变暖下加剧的火灾危险不能通过减少 CO₂ 来立即恢复，这主要是由于气候惯性维持了大气干燥。由于气候对 CO₂ 水平的反应滞后，预计加剧的火灾危险将导致全球 68% 的地区产生额外的 CO₂ 排放。这些发现强调，即使在负排放导致全球降温的情况下，火灾活动的增加也可能加强火灾-碳-气候反馈循环，并导致进一步的社会经济损失。