Evaluation and prediction of wheel-rail rolling contact fatigue (RCF) damage can provide important theoretical guarantees for the service safety of wheels and rails and help make maintenance easier to plan. This study aims to develop a novel method for evaluating and predicting RCF damage of the pearlite rail materials with various initial shear yield strengths (ke). Based on the rough set mathematical theory incorporated within the cloud model of the comprehensive evaluation index (P0/ke*μt), a novel evaluation and prediction method for RCF damage states of various pearlite rail materials was constructed using the shakedown limits for pearlite rail materials with various initial shear yield strengths. To develop this novel prediction method, different evaluation indices for RCF damage states were designed. A comprehensive certainty approach was introduced to quantitatively analyze the actual measured values of distinct evaluation indices that corresponds to different RCF damage states, wherein the maximum value rule was applied. Moreover, the prediction results were confirmed after further verifying using the actual measured value of the P0/ke*μt. The results indicated that the predicted results were consistent with the test outcomes. The key feature of this prediction method was that it involved both the intrinsic shear yield strength of evaluated pearlite rail materials and wheel-rail rolling contact variables. On the basis of the two-dimensional classical shakedown map, a three-dimensional shakedown limit diagram for rail materials with varying initial shear yield strengths was further constructed using this novel prediction method. The three-dimensional shakedown limit diagram featured an inclined curved surface. As the initial shear yield strength of the pearlite rail materials increased, the curved surface tilted downward, indicating that an increase in the initial ke value of the pearlite rail materials could result in a lower shakedown limit.

中文翻译：

---

一种基于安定极限和粗糙集理论的云模型珠光体钢轨材料滚动接触疲劳损伤预测方法


轮轨滚动接触疲劳 （RCF） 损伤的评估和预测可为轮轨的使用安全提供重要的理论保障，有助于简化维护计划。本研究旨在开发一种评估和预测具有不同初始剪切屈服强度 （ke） 的珠光体钢轨材料的 RCF 损伤的新方法。基于综合评价指标云模型 （P0/ke*μt） 中融入的粗糙集数学理论，利用具有不同初始剪切屈服强度的珠光体钢轨材料的安定极限，构建了一种新型的珠光体钢轨材料 RCF 损伤状态评价和预测方法。为了开发这种新颖的预测方法，设计了 RCF 损伤状态的不同评估指标。引入了一种全面的确定性方法来定量分析对应于不同 RCF 损伤状态的不同评估指标的实际测量值，其中应用了最大值规则。此外，使用 P0/ke*μt 的实际测量值进一步验证后，证实了预测结果。结果表明，预测结果与测试结果一致。这种预测方法的主要特点是它同时涉及被评估的珠光体轨道材料的内禀剪切屈服强度和轮轨滚动接触变量。在二维经典试定图的基础上，采用这种新颖的预测方法进一步构建了具有不同初始剪切屈服强度的钢轨材料的三维试定极限图。三维安定极限图具有倾斜的曲面。 随着珠光体钢轨材料初始剪切屈服强度的增加，曲面向下倾斜，表明珠光体钢轨材料初始 ke 值的增加可能导致较低的安定极限。