Precise forecasting of land use modifications and carbon storage (CS) alterations is essential for effective regulatory measures and ecological quality enhancement. However, there are limited studies on land use dynamics and its impact on CS in the arid regions of Northwest China. Therefore, this study explores land use and CS changes in the Tulufan-Hami Basin from 2000 to 2050. The SD-FLUS and InVEST models were employed to simulate land use patterns and assess CS under three scenarios (SSP126-EP, SSP245-ND and SSP585-ED). The results of our study indicate that the area of cropland and built-up land both increased dramatically from 2000 to 2020, expanding by 347 km2 and 505 km2 respectively. CS initially rose by 0.74 × 106t from 2000 to 2010 but then declined by 1.37 × 106t from 2010 to 2020. Construction expansion and grassland degradation drove the decline. By 2050, the SSP126-EP scenario predicts an increase in CS of 3.64 × 106t compared to 2020. However, both the SSP245-ND and SSP585-ED scenarios show significant decreases, with a decline of 0.55 × 106t and 1.87 × 106t respectively. These findings provide a foundation for global ecological preservation and CS enhancement in arid regions.

中文翻译：

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城市化与气候变化背景下吐鲁帆—哈密流域土地利用与碳储量变化综合评价


精确预测土地利用变化和碳储存 （CS） 变化对于有效的监管措施和提高生态质量至关重要。然而，关于西北干旱地区土地利用动态及其对 CS 影响的研究有限。因此，本研究探讨了 2000 年至 2050 年吐鲁帆-哈密流域的土地利用和 CS 变化。采用 SD-FLUS 和 InVEST 模型模拟土地利用模式并评估三种情景 （SSP126-EP 、 SSP245-ND 和 SSP585-ED） 下的 CS。研究结果表明，2000—2020 年耕地面积和建成地面积均大幅增加，分别扩大了 347 km2 和 505 km2。CS 最初从 2000 年到 2010 年上涨了 0.74 × 106 吨，但随后从 2010 年到 2020 年下降了 1.37 × 106 吨。建筑扩张和草原退化推动了下降。SSP126-EP 情景预测，到 2050 年，CS 将比 2020 年增加 3.64 × 106 吨。然而，SSP245-ND 和 SSP585-ED 情景均显示出显著下降，分别下降了 0.55 × 106 吨和 1.87 × 106 吨。这些发现为干旱区全球生态保护和CS增强提供了基础。