The Malthusian trap is a well recognized source of stagnation in per capita income prior to industrialization. However, previous studies have found mixed evidence about its exact strength. This article contributes to this ongoing debate by estimating the speed of convergence for a panel of 9 preindustrial European economies over a long period of time (14th–18th century). The analysis relies on a calibrated Malthusian model for England and β-convergence regressions. I find evidence of significant differences in the strength of the Malthusian trap between preindustrial European economies. The strongest estimated Malthusian trap is in Sweden, with a half-life of 20 years. The weakest estimated Malthusian trap is in England, with a half-life of about 230 years. This implies that some preindustrial economies were able to experience prolonged variations in their standards of living after a shock, while still being subject to Malthusian stagnation in the long run.

中文翻译：

---

马尔萨斯世界中的收敛速度：弱稳态还是强稳态？


马尔萨斯陷阱是公认的工业化之前人均收入停滞的根源。然而，以前的研究发现了关于其确切强度的不同证据。本文通过估计一个由 9 个前工业化时期（14-18 世纪）组成的小组的趋同速度，为这一正在进行的辩论做出了贡献。该分析依赖于校准的英格兰马尔萨斯模型和β收敛回归。我发现证据表明，前工业化欧洲经济体之间的马尔萨斯陷阱强度存在显著差异。估计最强的马尔萨斯陷阱位于瑞典，半衰期为 20 年。估计最弱的马尔萨斯陷阱位于英格兰，半衰期约为 230 年。这意味着一些前工业化经济体在冲击后能够经历长期的生活水平变化，但从长远来看，它们仍然受到马尔萨斯停滞的影响。