Offset geomorphic markers are commonly used to interpret slip history of strike-slip faults and have played an important role in forming earthquake recurrence models. These data sets are typically analyzed using cumulative probability methods to interpret average amounts of slip in past earthquakes. However, interpretation of the geomorphic record to infer surface slip history is complicated by slip variability, measurement uncertainty, and modification of offset features in the landscape. To investigate how well geomorphic data record surface slip, we use offset measurements from recent strike-slip surface ruptures (n = 39), faults with geomorphic evidence of multiple strike-slip earthquakes (n = 29), and synthetic slip distributions with added noise (n$>$10,000) to examine the constraints of the geomorphic record and the underlying assumptions of the cumulative offset probability distribution analysis method. We find that the geomorphic record is unlikely to resolve more than two paleo-slip distributions, except in specific cases with low slip variability, high slip-per-event, and semiarid climate. In cases where site-specific conditions allow for interpretation of more than two earthquakes, lateral extrapolation along a fault is not straightforward because on-fault displacement and distributed deformation may be spatially variable in each earthquake. We also find that average slip in modern earthquakes is adequately recovered by probability methods, but the reported prevalence of strike-slip faults with characteristic slip history is not supported by geomorphic data. We also propose updated methods to interpret slip history and construct uncertainty bounds for paleo-slip distributions.

中文翻译：

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在地貌记录中对走滑表面位移的有限保存


偏移地貌标记通常用于解释走滑断层的滑移历史，并在形成地震复发模型中发挥了重要作用。这些数据集通常使用累积概率法进行分析，以解释过去地震中的平均滑移量。然而，由于滑移变化、测量不确定性和景观中偏移特征的修改，对地貌记录的解释以推断表面滑移历史变得复杂。为了研究地貌数据对地表滑移的记录程度，我们使用了最近走滑表面破裂 （n = 39）、具有多次走滑地震地貌证据的断层 （n = 29） 以及增加噪声的合成滑移分布 （n$>$10,000） 来检查地貌记录的约束和累积偏移概率分布分析方法的基本假设。我们发现，地貌记录不太可能解析两个以上的古滑移分布，除非在滑移变异性低、每次事件滑移高和半干旱气候的特定情况下。在场址特定条件允许解释两次以上地震的情况下，沿断层的横向外推并不简单，因为每次地震的断层位移和分布变形可能在空间上发生变化。我们还发现，现代地震中的平均滑移可以通过概率方法充分恢复，但地貌数据并不支持报告的具有特征滑移历史的走滑断层的普遍性。 我们还提出了更新的方法来解释滑移历史并为古滑移分布构建不确定性边界。