Climate change stimulates the emergence of floods and increases flood risk for communities, resulting in extensive casualties and economic loss. Thus, flood resilience has been the focus of much attention. Integrated and holistic metrics are important for an accurate urban flood resilience evaluation. However, performance-based metrics involving surface inundation do not consider the socioeconomic impacts of damage costs on the recovery ability of the urban systems. This hinders the investigation of climate change-induced effects on flood resilience. Therefore, this study proposed a performance-based resilience metric considering the negative impacts of flooding damage costs. The proposed metric was then piloted in a highly urbanized area in Osaka City, Japan to explore the responses of flood resilience to climate change. The results suggest that climate change exerts non-negligible pressure on the study area to maintain its economic characteristics during flooding. Rainfall intensity primarily affects the urban system’s most unfavorable state, while the total amount and duration of rainfall mostly impact the relatively stable state following flooding. Climate change severity is positively linked to the reduction in overall flood resilience. Continued climate change will further expand the spatial coverage of flood resilience losses on a global scale. Furthermore, the negative impacts of economic losses on flood resilience are more noticeable during rainfall events with higher rainfall intensities. This study improves the comprehensiveness of performance-based flood resilience evaluations and provides a reference for the effective enhancement of urban flood resilience under climate change.

中文翻译：

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城市洪涝韧性对气候变化的响应：考虑损失成本的社会经济影响的新型基于绩效的指标的探索


气候变化刺激了洪水的出现，增加了社区的洪水风险，导致广泛的人员伤亡和经济损失。因此，抗洪能力一直是备受关注的焦点。综合和整体指标对于准确的城市洪水韧性评估非常重要。然而，涉及地表洪水泛滥的基于性能的指标并未考虑损害成本对城市系统恢复能力的社会经济影响。这阻碍了对气候变化对洪水复原力影响的研究。因此，本研究提出了一种基于性能的弹性指标，考虑了洪水损害成本的负面影响。然后，该指标在日本大阪市的一个高度城市化地区进行了试点，以探索洪水抵御能力对气候变化的响应。结果表明，气候变化对研究区施加了不可忽视的压力，要求在洪水期间保持其经济特征。降雨强度主要影响城市系统最不利的状态，而降雨的总量和持续时间主要影响洪水后相对稳定的状态。气候变化的严重性与整体洪水抵御能力的降低呈正相关。持续的气候变化将进一步扩大全球范围内抗洪能力损失的空间覆盖范围。此外，在降雨强度较高的降雨事件中，经济损失对洪水韧性的负面影响更为明显。本研究提高了基于绩效的洪涝韧性评价的全面性，为气候变化下城市洪涝韧性的有效增强提供了参考。