Over the past two decades, the Canadian Arctic has experienced a marked reduction in sea ice extent, coinciding with a significant rise in ship traffic. This study explores the relationship between ship traffic, shipping accidents, accident rates, and diminishing sea ice from 1990 to 2022 during the shipping season. The findings reveal that ship traffic has increased substantially along major Arctic routes, such as the Hudson Strait, Baffin Island, and the Northwest Passage, driven by the consistent decline in sea ice. Despite this rise in traffic, accident rates for commercial vessels, particularly General Cargo and Tanker ships, have significantly decreased, suggesting that current safety measures may be effective. However, the study also uncovered a significant positive correlation between all vessel accidents and sea ice concentration, indicating that certain ice conditions still pose substantial risks to vessels. Additionally, passenger vessel traffic has shown a notable positive correlation with accidents, pointing to emerging risks in the region. Non-commercial vessels, such as fishing vessels, have demonstrated stable accident rates, though they remain understudied. These results underscore the complexity of Arctic maritime operations in the face of climate change and highlight the urgent need for adaptive strategies, continuous monitoring, and targeted policy interventions to ensure the safety and sustainability of future Arctic shipping.

中文翻译：

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1990 年至 2022 年在加拿大北极冰雪海域作业的商业和非商业船舶的航运事故模式分析


在过去的二十年里，加拿大北极地区的海冰面积显著减少，同时船舶交通量也大幅增加。本研究探讨了 1990 年至 2022 年航运季节船舶交通、航运事故、事故率和海冰减少之间的关系。研究结果表明，由于海冰的持续减少，哈德逊海峡、巴芬岛和西北航道等主要北极航线上的船舶交通量大幅增加。尽管交通量有所增加，但商船（尤其是杂货船和油轮船）的事故率已显着下降，这表明当前的安全措施可能是有效的。然而，该研究还发现，所有船舶事故与海冰浓度之间存在显著的正相关关系，这表明某些冰况仍然对船舶构成重大风险。此外，客船交通与事故呈显著的正相关关系，这表明该地区存在新风险。非商业船舶，如渔船，已显示出稳定的事故率，尽管它们仍未得到充分研究。这些结果强调了面对气候变化的北极海上作业的复杂性，并强调了对适应性战略、持续监测和有针对性的政策干预的迫切需求，以确保未来北极航运的安全性和可持续性。