Weather-related road closures have the potential to cause serious impacts to society by disrupting road network function. Impacts to the population are variable based on the temporal and spatial extent of the closures, as well as the ability of the road network to absorb the impacts of closures by offering suitable alternative routes. In general, analyses of the impacts of weather-related road closures have focused on short-term, major events, such as hurricanes. There has been little focus on the ability for weather-related disruptions of varying size and severity (from localized tree fall to major hurricanes) to cause cumulative impacts to the population over longer time scales. This analysis considers daily impacts to free-flow travel time by employing an adjusted graph theory approach that also considers demand to more effectively analyze travel time impacts. In particular, this study uses mobility data to determine “habitual travel” for each census block group in the state, which allows for consideration of weather-related travel time impacts based on regularly occurring trips. We conduct a case study in North Carolina over the period of 2016–2023. Results indicate that although major events (such as Hurricane Matthew and Florence) represent the days with the most intense travel time disruptions, much of the state has experienced more than 30 days of travel-time disruption due to weather-related closures. Ultimately, rural areas of the state, especially the southeast coastal plain and the far western area of the state, emerge as the most impacted regions, which exposes potential vulnerabilities, especially considering the expected increase of weather-related road closures due to climate change.

中文翻译：

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与天气相关的道路封闭对北卡罗来纳州日常习惯性出行的影响


与天气相关的封路可能会破坏道路网络功能，从而对社会造成严重影响。对人口的影响是可变的，具体取决于封闭的时间和空间范围，以及道路网络通过提供合适的替代路线来吸收封闭影响的能力。一般来说，对与天气相关的道路封闭影响的分析主要集中在短期的重大事件上，例如飓风。很少有人关注不同规模和严重程度的天气相关破坏（从局部树木倒塌到大飓风）在较长时间尺度上对种群造成累积影响的能力。此分析通过采用调整后的图论方法考虑对畅通行驶时间的每日影响，该方法还考虑了需求，以更有效地分析出行时间影响。特别是，本研究使用流动性数据来确定该州每个人口普查区块组的“习惯性出行”，从而允许根据定期发生的出行考虑与天气相关的出行时间影响。我们在 2016 年至 2023 年期间在北卡罗来纳州进行了案例研究。结果表明，尽管重大事件（如飓风马修和佛罗伦萨）代表了旅行时间中断最严重的日子，但由于与天气相关的关闭，该州大部分地区已经经历了 30 多天的旅行时间中断。最终，该州的农村地区，尤其是东南沿海平原和该州的最西部地区，成为受影响最严重的地区，这暴露了潜在的脆弱性，特别是考虑到气候变化导致与天气相关的道路封闭预计将增加。