This study presents the first analysis of the nexus between the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), a measure of climate risk, and segmented clean energy indices (such as solar, renewable, and bioenergy). Our research findings indicate that (i) the Granger quantile causality significance of SOI on segmented clean energy indices is asymmetric across different conditional quantiles. Significant predictability of SOI is observed only at the 0.25 and 0.75 quantile levels for all segmented clean energy indices, except for the WilderHill Clean Energy Index and NASDAQ OMX Fuel Cell Index. (ii) The clean energy market is significantly influenced by SOI under bullish market conditions. Impacts of SOI on all clean energy markets are nearly negligible when clean energy indices are at the median and lower quantile levels. (iii) The influence of strong La Niña episodes on segmented clean energy indices is more pronounced than during periods of intense El Niño phenomena. (iv) SOI exhibited a positive correlation at mid-term and long-term frequencies with segmented Clean Energy sectors, excluding bioenergy, for the majority of the sample period. Our conclusions provide deeper insights for investors managing clean energy investments in extreme climate conditions. Additionally, they offer useful information for policymakers to formulate viable economic policies addressing climate change, ensuring energy security, and facilitating a safer transition to clean energy.

中文翻译：

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气候风险是否是特定清洁能源指数的晴雨表？从四分位数和时频角度获取洞察


本研究首次分析了南方涛动指数 （SOI）（一种衡量气候风险的指标）与分段清洁能源指数（如太阳能、可再生能源和生物能源）之间的联系。我们的研究结果表明，（i） SOI 对分段清洁能源指数的格兰杰分位数因果关系意义在不同的条件分位数之间是不对称的。除 WilderHill 清洁能源指数和纳斯达克 OMX 燃料电池指数外，所有分段清洁能源指数仅在 0.25 和 0.75 分位数水平上观察到 SOI 的显著可预测性。（ii） 在牛市条件下，清洁能源市场受到 SOI 的显著影响。当清洁能源指数处于中位数和较低分位数水平时，SOI 对所有清洁能源市场的影响几乎可以忽略不计。（iii） 强拉尼娜现象对分段清洁能源指数的影响比强烈的厄尔尼诺现象时期更为明显。（iv） 在样本期的大部分时间里，SOI 在中期和长期频率上与不包括生物能源的细分清洁能源部门呈正相关。我们的结论为在极端气候条件下管理清洁能源投资的投资者提供了更深入的见解。此外，它们还为政策制定者制定可行的经济政策以应对气候变化、确保能源安全并促进更安全地向清洁能源过渡提供了有用的信息。